HISTORIC HURRICANE SEASON POSSIBLE! "LA NINA" DRIVES HURRICANES WILDFIRES & GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGES! METHANE CARBON EXPLODE! ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MELT GREENLAND! "ICE FREE ARCTIC" 2025/7 = RAPID ICE MELT= AMOC COLLAPSE UNLEASHES "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!"

6/5/2022

Dangerous Heat Stretches From Great Lakes to Gulf Coast! IT IS ON THIS NEWS REPORT BELOW AND ON "THE WEATHER CHANNEL REPORT!" . . "NOT" ON THE COPERNICUS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP! IT LOOKS LIKE . . 2-3 C ABOVE . . NORMAL TEMPERATURES! NOT AS IT DOES ON THE VIDEO! RECORD BREAKING TEMPS!

HENCE . . WHY I DON'T USE COPERNICUS MAPS ANY LONGER! WATCH MY POSTS ON "RIGGED" ON THE POSTS PAGE!

THIS POST IS DEDICATED TO MY BROTHER, MARK AND SISTER-IN-LAW . . SUZIE! LUV U!
. . PLEASE PLEASE SELL YOUR CONDO IN TAMPA BAY, FL & MOVE NEAR PAUL AND BRUCE!
. . MY BROTHERS PAUL AND BRUCE! . . LIVE IN MID MI NORTH OF ANN ARBOR! GREAT!
. . NOW! . . AND I MEAN . . NOW! . . GOD IS SCREAMING AT YOU! . . PLEASE DO IT NOW!

SERIOUSLY THINK ABOUT THIS! HAD SUPER STORM HURRICANE IRMA . . NOT!
. . CRASHED INTO CUBA! . . DROPPING IT FROM A CAT 5 . . AT THE TIME!
. . DOWN TO A . . CAT 3 . . THE ENTRY LEVEL TO . . "SUPER STORMS!" . . CAT 3 4 & 5!
. . WITH THIS SAME PATH! . . WITH THE EAST EYE WALL . . DIRECTLY OVER . .
. . "TURKEY POINT NUCLEAR REACTORS!" . . THESE REACTORS MAY HAVE EXPLODED &
. . IMPLODED RELEASING MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF RADIATION INTO THE OCEAN AND AIR!

IT IS NOT . . "IF" . . THIS WILL HAPPEN! IT IS SIMPLY . . "HOW SOON!" . . 2022 LOOKS GOOD!
. . FOR . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORM" TO DESTROY . .
. . TURKEY POINT NR OR ANY OF THE MANY OTHERS AROUND THE GULF, FLORIDA SE US!
. . EXIT . . THE GULF . . FLORIDA . . AND . . SE US . . NOW! BEFORE "THE MONSTER COMES!"

THE LATEST ECMWF SEASONAL (SEA55) IS CONCERNING FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON! IT PREDICTS THE HIGHEST "ACCUMULATED HURRICANE/CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX" . . FOR 2022! AN . . ACE INDEX OF 225 FOR THE 2022 HURRICANE SEASON! OMG!

THE NORMAL ACCORDING TO MARK SUDDUTH IS AROUND 104, SEE GRAPH BELOW! THIS IS . . OFF THE CHARTS! THE HIGHEST SINCE THEY HAVE MADE THESE FORECASTS IN 1993! FOLLOW BEN NOLL . . ERIC WEBB . . AND PHILLIP KLOTZBACH ON TWITTER! MARK SUDDUTH ON HURRICANETRACK.COM . . AND . . YOUTUBE!

THE ACE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGH SINCE I CALLED . . "THE BEGINNING OF THE ERA OF THE SUPER STORMS!" IN AUGUST OF 2017, AT THE BEGINNING OF . . "SUPER STORM RAINICANE HARVEY!" SEE SUPER STORM POSTS! I SAID IT WOULD BE A CAT 4-5 DUE TO THE 83 F SEA SURFACE TEMPS AT BOUY 42002, WEST CENTER GULF BOUY.

THIS WAS WHEN I CALLED . . "THE CLATHRATE GUN FIRING!" . . "HOT STUFF!" . . ARISES!
. . "THE SIBERIAN METANE MONSTER" . . EXPLODING! . . DUE TO MASSIVE AND NUMEROUS
. . PINGOS DISCOVERED IN YAMAL! . . SIGNIFICANT . . "METHANE SEEPS" . . IN THE ESAS!
. . MASSIVE METHANE PLUMS OVER THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF (HERE 2017).

THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR HIGHEST PRESEASON ACE FORECAST WAS DUE TO THE HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE GULF. THE CENTER WEST BOUY, 42002, WAS AT . . 82.6 F . . ALREADY 6/6/22! . . MY GUESTIMATE IS 87 - 88 F 2022!

OMG! IT IS JUST . . 3 DAYS FROM MY PRIOR READING OF 82.6 F! . . 6/9/22 . . 83.5 F!
. . THIS IS UP ALMOST . . 1 F . . 0.9 F . . IN JUST . . 3 DAYS! . . NOT TO BE BEATEN BY . .
. . THE RISE TO 83.8 F TODAY, 6/10/22, UP . . 1.2 F . . IN 4 DAYS! . . MAYBE 89 F! . .

THINK OF THIS! . . IN 4 DAYS . . THE GULF SST HAS SPIKED 1.2 F! . . WHEN! . .
. . IT SPIKES ANOTHER . . 2.2 F . . THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA SURFACE TEMPS SST!
. . THE GULF SST WILL BE AT . . 86 F! . . THE TEMP THAT CREATED . . "TYPHOON HAIYAN!"
. . LETS SEE! . . THAT MAY HAPPEN . . BASED ON THE LAST 4 DAYS! . . IN UNDER 8 DAYS!

OMG! . . THE SST IN THE CENTER W GULF BOUY 42002 . . HAS EXPLODED . . 84.6 F! 6/11/22
. . THIS IS UP . . 0.8 . . IN . . ONE DAY! FROM 83.8! . . IT HAS SKYROCKETED . . 2.2 F!
. . IN JUST . . 5 DAYS! . . OMG! . . IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS! . . AT THIS PACE!
. . THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SST . . IN . . "THE GULF OF MEXICO!" . . WILL . .
. . BE WILL AT . . 86.8 F! . . 0.8 F ABOVE THE SST THAT CAUSED . . "TYPHOON HAIYAN!"

PEOPLE JUST DON'T GET THE FACT "82 F IS A HURRICANE!" . . "86 F IS TYPHOON HAIYAN!"
. . HAIYAN IS . . THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL! . . 190 MPH SUSTAINED, 236 TOP WS!
. . THE WORLD DOES NOT HAVE ANY EXPERIENCE . . ABOVE . . 86 F! . . HOWEVER . .
. . IT MAY THIS YEAR . . IN . . THE GULF OF MEXICO! . . THE GULF COULD HIT . . 88 F!

"THE GULF OF MEXICO" IS . . "THE PERFECT MONSTER STORM CREATOR!" . . 92 F . . 2025!
. . WITH THE RIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS! . . NOT CLIMATE! . . COULD THIS BE . .

"2022! THE YEAR OF THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORM?!" YES IT COULD!

"THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" THAT DESTROY THE MANY NUCLEAR REACTORS AROUND THE GULF & US SE ARE . . COMING TO . . THE GULF, FLORIDA, US SE SOON! PREPEARE AND BETTER YET . . EXIT . . THE GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA AND US SE . . NOW!

MOVE TO . . "THE GREAT LAKES" . . OVER TO EAST COAST! . . NORTH TO HUDSON BAY!
. . STILL LOVE THE NORDIC COUNTRIES! ALTHOUGH INSTEAD OF AN ICE AGE!
. . THE RELEASE OF GIGATONS OF METHANE INSURE . . "HOT HOUSE ARCTIC!"
. . HOWEVER, THE LOWER AREAS AROUND THE BALTIC SEA! EXCEPT FOR RUSSIA!
. . DENMARK AND FINLAND ARE MY TOP PICKS. COPENHAGEN'S CHRISTIANA IS #1!
. . EXCEPT FOR THE GOOGLE / RIGHT WING TAKING OVER NEW ZEALAND IT IS #2!
. . SO YOU EVIL RIGHT WING MONSTERS R BUYING UP NEW ZEALAND . . WHY?
. . IF YOU REALLY DON'T BELIEVE IN . . "ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE!?" . . ENJOY HELL!
. . LAKE CHAMPLAIN, BURLINGTON, VT, BERNIE COUNTRY, SANE PEOPLE! . . #1 US PICK!
. . MONTREAL, CANADA IS MY #1 CANADIAN CITY, CANADA IS A BIG PLUS! LIBERAL!
. . NORTHERN MI, AND CANADIAN SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR, #1 FOR LIVE IN THE WILDERS!
. . ANN ARBOR FOR INTELLECTUALS! . . LOVE PETOSKEY (HS HOME) & TRAVERS CITY!

2025 WHEN METHANE AND RADIATION EXPLODE! THESE AREAS WILL BE . . "THE WORLD!"

SATAN'S EMPIRE . . THE US! . . IS THE MOST EVIL EMPIRE OF RUTHLESS RICH & . .
. . THEIR ANTI-CHRISTIAN SATANIC WHORES! . . TO EVER . . DISGRACE GOD'S NAME!
. . IN . . CHRIST'S NAME! . . AMEN! . . WHOOOOO RA! . . WE ARE THE MOST EVIL! AMEN!

PLEASE PRAY FOR THE EVIL RIGHT WING ANTI-CHRISTIAN LOST SOULS & THE RICH!

DO . . “THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES” . . AND . . “ONE LOVE” . . NOW!

PLEASE SEE 2021 HURRICANE SEASON POSTS! . . 2022 . . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORM?"

THE GREEN PARTY - THE ONLY SPIRITUALLY SOUND PARTY! VOTE FOR THE GREEN PARTY! THE DEMS - ARE KILLING US QUICKLY! THE REPUBLICANS - WILL KILL US - EVEN QUICKER! EVIL PEOPLE - EVIL PARASITES - EVIL PARTIES! VOTE GREEN!

"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY!" WHEN "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!" "STRONG EL NINO COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & THE 2ND COMING!" "BECOME ONE II!" TRANS HELL! PASSIONATELY LOVE GOD! NOT MONEY! "LOVE OTHERS WITH GOD'S LOVE!" GIVE YOUR WEALTH & LIFE TO GOD!

JOE DO "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" AND "ONE LOVE!" OR FRY WHEN YOU DIE! METHANE EXPLODES! IPCC ISSUES NO METHANE NON-SCIENCE! ARCTIC ICE BY GEOENGINEERING!? AMOC COLLAPSE EXPLODES GULF TEMPS! SUPER STORMS DESTROY GULF BY 25! It Is the end!

REMEMBERING - CHENEY BUSH STOLE B-TRILLIONS DOING 9/11! A NEWS WOMAN CALLED BLD 7 DOWN LIVE ON TV! ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO 9/11 WOULD HAPPEN 11 MONTHS BEFORE AND ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO "SATAN'S MAFIA GLOBAL DEPOPULATION AND POLICE STATE AGENDA!" NO VACCINES FOR POOR COUNTRIES IS SATAN'S MAFIA DEPOPULATION AGENDA! It Is THE END! ENJOY HELL!

"THE LOGIC OF THE GOD OF LOVE!" - "JESUS CHRIST" - "THE FIRST RADICAL PACIFIST MARKET SOCIALIST!" - "MEDICARE FOR ALL - CHRISTIAN!" "CAPITALISM IS SATANISM!" JANUARY HOTTEST ON RECORD! THE ANTI-CHRISTIANS ARE KILLING US! IN CHRIST'S NAME! PRAY FOR THEM! Medicare For All Would Save More Than 68,000 Lives And $450 Billion Every Year, According To New Study!

PURE EVIL INIQUITY OF WEALTH INCOME & JUSTICE! SATAN’S EMPIRE - ANTI-CHRISTIAN SATANISTS - FLEECE & KILL US - IN - GOD’S NAME! THOSE WHO - WORK INIQUITY - THOSE WHO - DO NOT - TAKE CARE OF THOSE IN NEED - “FRY IN HELL!” “It Is THE END!”

"HOT STUFF" R - ISN'T SHE CUTE! SIC EM! "THE EVIL MONEY MONSTERS & SLUTS!" "VENUS AIN'T GOING TO BE HOTTER THAN YOU . . HOT STUFF!" . . BY 2040! . . GO GIRL!

PLEASE SEE THE PRIOR POSTS: RIGGED! KOCHS RIGGED COVID & HEALTHCARE! EXPLODES COVID! "ICE FREE ARCTIC!" UNLEASHES "HOT STUFF" "GIGATONS OF METHANE!" CAUSED BY STRONG EL NINO EARTHQUAKES AMOC COLLAPSE REDUCED ALBEDO BY 2023-2027! ADD "LATENT HEAT OF FUSION!" = MELTING OF ANTARCTICA

"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY!" WHEN "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!" "STRONG EL NINO COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & THE 2ND COMING!" "BECOME ONE II!" TRANS HELL! PASSIONATELY LOVE GOD! NOT MONEY! "LOVE OTHERS WITH GOD'S LOVE!" GIVE YOUR WEALTH & LIFE TO GOD!

NOT ONLY IS CEO PAY UP A STAGGERING 1,332% FROM 1978-2020! DURING "THE NEOLIBERAL ASSULT" ON "THE REST" BY "THE RUTHLESS RICH!" THESE "ROBIN HOOD'S FOR THE RUTHLESS RICH!" ONLY PROVIDED A PALTRY "18%" GAIN OVER THIS WHOLE 48 YEAR PERIOD, ONLY 0.37% INCREASE IN PAY PER YEAR! LESS THAN "THE EVIL MONEY MONSTERS" STOLE FROM US IN 2020, THE WORST PANDEMIC YEAR WHERE THEIR REALIZED INCOME WAS UP BY 18.9%! NOT INC DEFERRED!

TO MAKE THIS "PURE EVIL!" THESE BASTARDS AND BITCHES "STOLE THEIR INCOME" FROM THE "BOTTOM 50%" OF INCOME EARNERS! "THOSE IN NEED!" FOR "THEIR RUTHLESS EVIL GREED!" THE TOP 1% INCOME SHARE DOUBLED FROM ROUGHLY 10% TO 20% OF TOTAL US INCOME! WHILE THE BOTTOM 50% SHARE OF TOTAL INCOME COLLAPSED ROUGHLY THE SAME AMOUNT! DOWN FROM ROUGHLY 22% TO 12% FROM 1978-2020!

SATAN'S EMPIRE OF EVIL THIEVES MAFIA DONS! & THEIR ANTI-CHRISTIAN SLUTS!

THE WORLD WILL BE "FALLING OFF OF HUBBERT'S CLIFF!" JUST WHEN . . MASSIVE METHANE WILL BE EXPLODING DUE TO "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!"

"THE ARCTIC DEATH SPIRAL" CAN BE SHOWN IN A CIRCULAR FORM! BELOW! WHEN "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!" THE BLACK LINE IN SEPT GOES TO ZERO!

"ECONOMIC HURRICANE" COMING SOON!

JAMIE DIAMOND - "SUPER SATAN'S MAFIA MONEY MONSTER DON" - WARNS OF THE COMING "ECONOMIC HURRICANE!" DUE TO "OVER STIMULUS BY THE FED!" NOT DUE TO JAMIE WALL STREET AND THE SUPER RICH BLOWING UP ASSETS AND BURYING EVERYONE IN MASSIVE DEBT!

DUE TO THE FED USING TOO LOW OF INTEREST RATES AND MONETARY STIMULUS CREATING TOO MUCH DEBT AND OVER PRICING OF ASSET! SERIOUSLY!

DUE TO YOU JAMIE DIAMOND! THE FED! AND THE RUTHLESS EVIL RICH! TO STUFF YOUR POCKETS WITH TRILLIONS OF INSANE PAY BONUSES ASSET GAINS! THAT YOU EVIL RICH SATAN'S MAFIA DONS EXPLODED, TO PROVIDE 40 YEARS OF HIGHLY OVER VALUED PAY, BONUSES STOCK AWARDS, M&A BONUSES, LEVERAGED DERIVATIVES GAINS, ETC ETC!

ON STOCKS THAT ARE NOW ROUGHLY 5 TIMES OVER VALUED! "THE NO TO NEGATIVE GROWTH DIVIDEND BASED VALUATION" I FORECAST FIRST QUARTER OF 1980, WHEN THE DIVIDEND YIELD WAS ROUGHLY 6%, WAS A 6% TO 8% DIVIDEND YIELD! IN A GRADUATE SYMPOSIUM IN ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY UNDER A VISITING PROF FROM STANFORD! THIS WAS THE END OF SOPHOMORE YEAR! WHILE SITTING IN A YEAR-LONG DOCTORAL SYMPOSIUM IN POLITICAL ECONOMICS! HENCE, THE KNOWLEDGE BASE! WHICH CHRIST GUIDED ME TO!

TO GET A 6% TO 8% DIVIDEND YIELD FROM THE CURRENT DIVIDEND YIELD ON THE STANDARD AND POORS 500 INDEX (SP500 Y), WHICH IS CURRENTLY 1.59% (6/10/22) STOCKS WOULD NEED TO DROP BY 74.5% TO GET TO 6%! THE SP500 NEEDS TO DROP BY OVER 80% TO GET TO AN 8% YIELD!

HENCE, STOCKS ARE ROUGHLY 5 TIMES OVER VALUED TO GET TO A REASONABLE INCOME. I INVEST IN THREE REITS THAT PROVIDE ROUGHLY 5%, MID 6% AND OVER 7% INCOME ON PREFERRED SHARES. PREFERRED SHARES DIVIDENDS HAVE TO BE PAID FIRST, BEFORE COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS.

AND THEY RANK FIRST IN BANKRUPTCY OVER COMMON. PLUS IN THIS CASE, THEY NOT ONLY HAVE TO PAY THE PREFERRED DIVIDENDS FIRST. IF THEY DON'T PAY THE PREFERRED DIVIDENDS, THEY MUST PAY ALL BACK DIVIDENDS TO THE PREFERRED SHAREHOLDERS, PRIOR TO PAYING THE COMMON SHAREHOLDERS (CUMULATIVE PREFERRED STOCKS)!

WHY WOULD I EVER INVEST IN COMMON STOCKS THAT ARE NEVER LIKELY TO GROW, IF THE YIELD IS NOT NORTH OF 8%! ESPECIALLY, ASSUMING MANY COMPANIES SLASHING DIVIDENDS, IN THE COMING "ECONOMIC HURRICANE!" JUST WHAT I FORECAST FIRST QUARTER OF 1980 WOULD HAPPEN!

I FORECAST FIRST QUARTER OF 1980, THAT YOU EVIL BEASTS WOULD BLOW UP THE ASSET MARKETS UNTIL 2007, WHEN I TURNED 50, BORN 1957, THE PEAK YEAR OF THE BABY BOOM. WHEN SPENDING TYPICALLY DROPS! DUE TO THE NEED TO SAVE FOR RETIREMENT! WHICH MOST HAVEN'T! THE STOCK MARKET PEAKED 11/2007, BEFORE "THE GREAT RECESSION!"

The U.S. Census Bureau reports the average retirement income for Americans over 65 years of age as both a median and a mean. In the most recent data from 2019, the figures were as follows:

Median retirement income: $47,357
Mean retirement income: $73,288

THE MEDIAN INCOME IS WHAT 50% OF THE FAMILIES HEADED BY SOMEONE 65 OR OLDER MAKE EQUAL TO OR LESS THAN! THE MEAN IS MEANINGLESS - PUN INTENDED! AS IT IS JUST PULLED UP BY THE TOP 1% MAKING MILLIONS!

The difference is even more stark for single retirees: According to the Pension Rights Center, half of all single Americans who are 65 years of age or over have an average retirement income of less than $24,224 per year.

THESE NUMBERS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY, DEPENDING ON THE SOURSE OF THE DATA AND WHO THEY ARE SURVEYING. IN ANOTHER ARTICLE, "Of the 47.8 million Americans ages 65 and older, the average income is only $38,515 dollars, according to the U.S. Census, and their average net worth is $170,516."

JAMIE DIAMOND! "YOU" WALL STREET AND THE EVIL RICH! RUTHLESSLY PURSUED "THE VIEL MAXUM!" OF "THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE!" THE ECONOMIC OPTIMUM

"ALL . . FOR US!" "NONE . . FOR THE REST!"
AS I CALL IT . . SATAN'S OPTIMUM!

"ALL . . FOR THE RUTHLESS RICH & SLUTS!"
"NOTHING . . FOR THOSE IN NEED!" AND "DESTROY THE GOOD PEOPLE!" STANDING AGAINST . . "SATAN'S VIEL MAXUM!"

PROVING, AS ADAM SMITH SAID IT WOULD, "CAPITALISM HAS FAILED!"

NOW THEY AND "YOU" "FRY BABY FRY!" IN THE "HELL OF HELLS" YOUR GREED CAUSED! . . FOR ETERNITY!

THE WOULD WOULD START EXPERIENCING "MAJOR ECONOMIC COLLAPSE" DUE TO OVER POPULATION BY 2020! PANDEMICS (COVID!) FOOD SHORTAGES (CHECK) FRESH WATER SHORTAGES (CHECK)! SAME AS CHRIST STATED! THEN POPULATIONS WOULD START DECLINING BY 2030! ACCORDING TO "THE LIMITS TO GROWTH" 1972 MIT! THE BOOK I STUDIED FIRST QUARTER 1980! THE FOUNDATION OF MY WORK HERE! GOOD FORECAST!

VISIBLE HERE ON THE RECTANGULAR "ARCTIC DEATH SPIRAL MAP!" "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" IS "THE METHANE TIME BOMB!" IS "HOT STUFF!" ARISING! . . EXPLODING METHANE!

WOW! IF YOU MADE 1.59% ON YOUR $170,516 RETIREMENT SAVINGS. THAT IS $2,711 INCOME ON YOUR SAVINGS IF YOU ARE INVESTED IN THE S&P500, BASED ON THE CURRENT DIVIDEND YIELD. ASSUMING THAT STOCK PRICES STAY THE SAME, AND COMPANIES DO NOT SLASH THEIR DIVIDENDS!

ASSET PRICES WOULD COLLAPSE SIGNIFICANTLY, I ARGUED WHEN THE BABY BOOM TURNED 50, AROUNT 2007! THE MARKET PEAKED 11/2007 BEFORE "THE GREAT RECESSION!" NOT A BAD FORECAST, IF I MUST SAY SO MYSELF! GOOD THING TOO! CHENEY & BUSH MAKING IT SO HORRIFIC IS WHAT ALLOWED ME TO INVEST THE TINY AMOUNT I HAD TO RETIRE ON! AND I DID VERY WELL! THANK GOD!

THE FIRMS THAT I WORKED FOR NEVER LIKED ANY OF MY VIEWS! CAN YOU IMAGINE? HENCE WHY I ONLY WORK FOR "THE ONE" SINCE 2015! GOD GUIDED ME TO THESE GAINS! THANK YOU LORD GOD!

THEN YOU EVIL SATAN'S MAFIA DONS WOULD BLOW UP THE MARKETS UNTIL THE BABY BOOM GENERATION RETIRED IN MASS! I JUST TURNED 65, THE BABY BOOM WILL BE MOSTLY RETIRED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS!

JUST WHEN "COINCIDENTLY" I FORECAST FIRST QUARTER 1980 IT WOULD! DUE TO WALL STREET THE EVIL RICH AND THE FED TRANSFERRING TRILLIONS TO THE SUPER RICH! BURYING . . "THE REST" . . IN SLAVE BASED DEBT SERVITUDE! MOST WITH NO BENEFITS! MANY NO RETIREMENTS! MANY WITH NO HEALTHCARE! HIGH PRICED HIGHER EDUCATION! NO FAMILY BENIS ETC

BLOWING UP THE ASSETS TO WHERE ASSETS PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO INCOME! JUST WHEN WE KNEW IN 1980 GROWTH WOULD SLOW AND GO NEGATIVE! DUE TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND LIKELY LITTLE TO NO GROWTH IN INCOME AND BENEFITS FOR . . "THE REST!"

"THE BIG SWITCH!" IS WHAT YOU ARE "SIGNALING NOW!" FROM "LEVERAGED LONG" TO BLOW UP ASSETS AND BURY THE MASSES IN DEBT! TO "LEVERAGED SHORT" TO CRUCIFY . . "THE REST!" WHILE YOU "EVIL MONEY MONSTERS" MAKE MORE TRILLIONS GOING "LEVERAGED SHORT ON THE ASSETS "YOU" BLEW UP!"

JUST ONE MORE "FLEECING CYCLE!" THESE "FLEECING CYCLES" HAVE OCCURRED SINCE NATHAN ROTHSCHILD "FRONT RAN" NAPOLEON'S LOSS OF "THE NAPOLEON WAR!" BE SURE TO WATCH THE LINKED VIDEO "MONEY MASTERS!"

JUST LIKE WHAT ROCKEFELLER ET AL DID TO CREATE "THE ROARING 20'S," THEN "THE GREAT DEPRESSION!" THE SAME RUTHLESS "ALL FOR THE RICH!" "RAPE THE REST!" DESTROY THE GOODD PEOPLE STANDING AGAINST "THE VIEL MAXUM!" "NEOLIBERAL SATANIC POLICIES!"

TRULY LISTEN WHAT NICHOLAS ROCKEFELLER TELLS AAORN RUSSO, FILM DIRECTOR, AND RIGHT WING LIBERTARIAN. 11 MONTHS BEFORE 9/11 ON THE LAST 13 MINUTES OF THE ORIGINAL MOVIE "ZEITGEIST!" THE FEDERAL RESERVE WAS CREATED BASED ON LIES! THEIR GOAL, AS I HAVE LAID OUT ON "HIS SITE!"

"THE GLOBAL DEPOPULATION AND POLICE STATE AGENDA" IS WHAT ROCKEFELLER TELLS RUSSO! DO 9/11 TO TAKE OVER IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN THE MIDDLE EAST, THEN VENEZUELA. THEN "CHIP EVERYONE" AND THOSE THAT STAND AGAINST "THE VIEL MAXUM!" WE SIMPLY "CANCEL" THEM!

AS ADAM SMITH, FATHER OF CAPITALISM, STATED IF "THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE" STILL LIVE BY "THE VIEL MAXUM" "ALL . . FOR US!" "NONE . . FOR THE REST!" CAPITALISM HAS FAILED!

I SUBMIT TO YOU . . "CAPITALISM HAS FAILED!" ALTHOUGH IT IS REALLY "SOCIALISM FOR THE RICH!" "SLAVE BASED RIGGED MONOPOLY FASCISM . . FOR . . THE REST!" "SLAVE BASED DEBT SERVITUDE!" THAT "YOU" JAMIE CREATED!

THE ONLY THING I DIDN'T SEE IS HOW TRULY EVIL SANTAN'S EMPIRE OF EVIL RICH AND THEIR ANTI-CHRISTIAN WHORES TRULY ARE! . . ENJOY HELL! VERY SOON! BETTER SELL EVERYTHING AND GIVE IT TO "THOSE IN NEED!" OR "FRY BABY FRY!" IN "THE HELL OF ALL HELLS" YOUR PURE EVIL GREED CAUSED! VERY SOON!

"ECONOMIC" AND "ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE" "HELL ON EARTH" IS COMING SOON TO PLANET EVIL GREED! PREPARE YOURSELVES! PREPARE YOUR SOULS! FOR "THANK GOD!" "It Is THE END" OF "RUTHLESS RULE BY THE EVIL RICH!"

BETTER START SELLING YOUR "INSANE INCOME" . . "THE BAGS OF HARVEST!" AND "YOUR EVIL WEALTH!" "THE HUMPS ON THE CAMEL'S BACK!"

AND GIFT THESE BILLIONS TO "THOSE IN NEED!" YOUR GREED HAS DAMNED! FOR "THE CAMEL TO FIT THROGH THE EYE OF THE NEEDLE!" TO ENTER HEAVEN! "THE FINAL JUDGEMENT!" BY 2027! . . 2022?

OR "FRY IN HELL YOU CAUSED!" . . SOON!

MOST HURRICANE POWER FORECAST EVER! PREPARE NOW!
. . MEANING! . . THE MOST POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING FOR TAMPA NE GULF CARIBBEAN!
. . SINCE . . THE ECMWF STARTING MAKING THESE FORECASTS IN . . 1993! OMG!

ECMWF FORECAST . . 2022 SEASON . . ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) . . 225!
. . OMG! . . REALLY TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THIS COMPARES TO PRIOR YEARS!
. . THEN WATCH THE VIDEOS ON SUPER STORMS KATRINA, HARVEY AND IRMA!
. . THEN IMAGINE . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" . .
. . BLOWING UP . . NUCLEAR REACTORS! . . DEVASTATING THE GULF, FLORIDA SE US!

BIGGEST RISK AREAS! . . BRIGHT RED BELOW! . . NE GULF COAST! . . TAMPA BAY!
. . SERIOUSLY! . . MY BROTHER & SISTER WHO LIVE IN TAMPA BAY! . . PREPARE NOW!
. . REALLY BROTHER & SISTER! . . WHY NOT MOVE BACK TO MICHIGAN WITH THE FAMILY?!

THE CARIBBEAN CHAIN! . . GOD BLESS THE ISLANDS! . . WENT SAILING IN THE BVI'S!
. . LAST SUMMER (2021)! . . MOSTLY NICELY RESTORED! . . EXCEPT FOR THE NOT RICH!
. . OH WELL! . . GOD BLESS THE ISLAND PEOPLE AND THE ISLANDS! . . GET PREPARED!

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT . . "ONE LOVE: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE COMMUNITIES" IS FOR!

SEE THIS PRIOR POST: JOE DO "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" AND "ONE LOVE!" OR FRY WHEN YOU DIE! METHANE EXPLODES! IPCC ISSUES NO METHANE NON-SCIENCE! ARCTIC ICE BY GEOENGINEERING!? AMOC COLLAPSE EXPLODES GULF TEMPS! SUPER STORMS DESTROY GULF BY 25! It Is the end!

THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE MAP FOR 150 YEARS! . . LOTS AND LOTS OF THEM!
. . WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC AND SUBPOLAR GYRE! . . PLUS . .
. . THE FLOW OF VERY HOT WATERS UP TO . . "THE GULF OF MEXICO!" . . BUT NOT . .
. . "OUT" . . OF . . THE GULF! . . DUE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC! . . THE ONLY . .
. . FLO IS OUT . . THE FLORIDA STRAITS! . . THIS WILL COLLAPSE! . . AS SOON AS . .
. . "THE ARCTIC GOES COMPLETELY ICE FREE!" . . 2025-2027! . . UNLEASHING . .
. . "HOT STUFF!" . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . "SEC EM HOT STUFF!"
. . "THE RUTHLESS RICH MONEY MONSTERS!" . . AND . . "THEIR MONEY SLUTS!"

"THE GULF OF MEXICO" . . IS . . "THE PERFECT SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER STORM!"
. . CREATOR! . . BUILDER! . . EXPLODER! . . THEY WILL ENGULF . . THE GULF!
. . DESTROYING . . "THE GULF OF MEXICO". . FLORIDA . . AND . . SE US . . BY 2025-7!
. . EXIT . . THE GULF . . FLORIDA . . AND . . SE US NOW! . . AND I MEAN . . NOW!

YUM YUM! . . "HOT STUFF" . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!"
. . LOVE! . . LOVE! . . LOVE! . . NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS! . . THEIR A . . REAL BLAST!

I'LL GOBBLE UP . . TURKEY POINT NR FLORIDA TIP! THE MOST AT RISK ANYWHERE!
. . ON MY WAY TO . . CRYSTAL RIVER NR! . . CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST!
. . AND IF . . I'M NOT FULL YET! . . MAYBE I WILL GOBBLE UP . . LEVY COUNTY NPP! BURP!

HAD . . "SUPER STORM HURRICANE IRMA" NOT . . SLAMMED INTO CUBA! IRMA MAY HAVE DESTROYED . . TURKEY POINT NR!

What If Hurricane Erin Had Hit the East Coast on 9/11?

By Jonathan Erdman
September 10, 2021

Visible satellite image of Hurricane Erin off the East Coast and a zoomed inset of smoke pouring from the Twin Towers in New York City on Sept. 11, 2001. (NASA)

At a Glance

On the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, a hurricane was well off the East Coast.
One can only speculate how history may have been different if it raced up the East Coast.

On Sept. 11, 2001, as terrorist attacks were unfolding in New York City, the Pentagon and near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, a hurricane was hovering off the Northeast seaboard.

In one of the most chilling weather images ever taken, both Hurricane Erin, about 500 miles east-southeast of New York, and the smoke plume from the World Trade Center Twin Towers about two hours after the first tower was hit was captured in a NASA satellite image.

The previous morning, a cold front swept through the East Coast with rain and thunderstorms. Crystal clear, cool weather followed on the morning of Tuesday, Sept. 11, accompanied by light northwest winds.

Hurricane Erin was never an East Coast landfall threat, as the cold front and increased westerly winds aloft gave a final east, then northeast shove to Erin. Erin did generate large swells which eventually reached the East Coast.

The Sept. 11, 2001, morning surface and upper-air weather depiction. Path history of Hurricane Erin is also shown, with red corresponding to hurricane intensity, and purple corresponding to Category 3 intensity. (Hurricane track data: NOAA/NHC)

What If ...Those specializing in alternative history can speculate how world events would have turned out differently if Hurricane Erin would've threatened the Northeast in September 2001.

We'll just mention here that the idea isn't far-fetched.

According to NOAA's database, 10 hurricanes have tracked within 60 nautical miles of New York City in records dating to the Civil War. Six of those have occurred in September.

Among them was Hurricane Gloria in September 1985 and the infamous Long Island Express in September 1938.

In the years after the Sept. 11 attacks, several hurricanes have reached the Northeast, some in September:

Isabel (2003) hammered the Washington D.C. metro area, among others.
Irene (2011) triggered storm surge flooding just below the destructive threshold for New York City
Superstorm Sandy (2012) triggered massive storm surge flooding in New York City, New Jersey, and elsewhere.

Mosaic radar image showing the center of Hurricane Irene just south of Cape May, New Jersey, on Aug. 28, 2011, at 3:02 a.m. EDT. (NOAA/NWS)

As we saw with Sandy, all you need is a strong enough area of high pressure aloft over the western Atlantic Ocean to steer the hurricane into the East Coast, rather than allowing it to "recurve" safely out to sea.

In a strange coincidence, almost exactly 10 years after the attacks, Hurricane Katia was spinning in almost the same location on Sept. 9, 2011. As with Erin, Katia made a hard-right turn before reaching the East Coast.

Then almost exactly 20 years after the attacks, Hurricane Larry was also spinning in a similar location, a bit farther east than both Erin and Katia.

Locations of Hurricanes Erin, Katia and Larry on Sept. 11, 2001, Sept. 9, 2011, and Sept. 10, 2021, respectively. (Track data: NOAA/NHC)

Two of the four hijacked planes on Sept. 11, 2001, took off from Boston's Logan Airport, and one each took off from Newark-Liberty and Dulles Airports.

It's fair to assume that a significant number of flights to and from the major Northeast hubs would've been canceled if Hurricane Erin had threatened the East Coast in September 2001.

Some of those airports may have even been forced to close for a while.

Whether a Hurricane Erin East Coast track would've thwarted, or merely delayed, the hijackers' plans to carry out the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil will likely never be known.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

CATEGORY 5 "SUPER STORMS" MAP ABOVE WILL INCREASE IN NUMBERS & POWER (ACE)!
. . WITH . . RAPIDLY RISING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES! . . THEY WILL EXPLODE!

THE 150 YEAR HURRICANE MAP BELOW WILL INCLUDE MANY MORE CAT 5 + STORMS!
. . ONE THAT . . VERY LIKELY . . MAY DESTROY . . ONE OF THE NUCLEAR REACTORS!
. . MANY PAST HURRICANES . . HAVE COME CLOSE TO NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS!

HAD . . "SUPER STORM HURRICANE IRMA" . . NOT . . PLOWED INTO CUBA! . . IT MAY HAVE
. . DESTROYED . . TURKEY POINT NUCLEAR REACTOR! . . IT IS THE MOST HIGH RISK NR!
. . THE WEATHER BANDS OF IRMA WENT OVER TURKEY POINT NUCLEAR REACTORS!
. . THIS NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IS IN DISREPAIR AND HAS CONSTANT PROBLEMS!
. . NOTABLY THE WATER AROUND THE TIP OF FLORIDA IS SO HOT IN AUG-SEPT! . .
. . "THE COOLING PONDS" . . FOR THE REACTORS . . ARE . . TOO HOT DURING THE MOST
. . AT RISK TIMES FOR . . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!" ADD OVER HEATED . .
. . COOLING PONDS, WITH THE EASTERN EYE WALL OF "THE MONSTER SS!" . . KABOOM!

"THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORM" . . WILL LIKELY DESTROY A NR! . .
. . BY 2025-2027! . . EXIT . . THE GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA, SE US. MOVE TO . .

THE GREAT LAKES . . TO EAST COAST! . . NORTH TO HUDSON BAY! . . NE OF N AMERICA!
. . THE NORDIC COUNTRIES . . NOTABLY . . DENMARK & FINLAND! . . AND NEW ZEALAND!

On December 9, 2020, Tropical Storm Risk issued an extended range forecast for the 2021 season, predicting slightly above-normal activity with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an ACE index of about 127 units.

TSR cited the expected development of a weak La Niña during the third quarter of 2021 as the main factor behind their forecast.

NOW COMPARE THIS FORECAST LAST YEAR 2021 OF AN . . ACE INDEX . . OF . . 127!
. . TO THIS YEAR'S 2022 FORECAST OF . . AN ACE INDEX . . OF . . 225!

"THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" ARE COMING TO . . THE GULF FLORIDA SE US! EXIT NOW!

THE NUMBER OF . . CAT 5 PLUS . . SUPER STORMS WILL EXPLODE! DUE TO THE RISING GULF SST/TEMPS DUE TO THE ONGOING COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC! WHAT WAS A "TROPICAL STORM" WILL NOW BE A "SUPER STORM!" SOON "THE MONSTERS!"
THE NUMBER OF "SUPER STORMS" CAT 3 4 AND 5 ARE RISING DUE TO METHANE SST!

CAN'T FIND THE 2022 SEA SURFACE TEMP ANOMALY MAP (SST MAP), BUT GIVEN THE ACE FORECAST OF 225 DWARFS 2020! AND IT IS BASED ON THE SST/WATER TEMP! I TRUST THAT THE SST ANOMALY IS THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN 2020! THESE SST "WILL EXPLODE WITH ICE FREE ARCTIC!" HERE COME "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" THAT DESTROY MANY OF THE GULF & US SE NUCLEAR REACTORS! IS THIS THE YEAR OF "THE MONSTER 2022?!"

The Gulf of Mexico is also part of the North Atlantic warm pool that forms in summer. Every summer, the whole Gulf of Mexico is marked with high sea surface temperatures, which support the formation and presence of tropical storms and hurricanes. This process is strengthened by the local ocean circulation inside the Gulf of Mexico, as the Loop Current and associated Rings are marked by a surface layer of warm waters that is thicker than in the rest of the Gulf. For example, a Loop Current Ring was involved in the intensification of Hurricane Opal in 1995, and of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Currently, NOAA/AOML operates ocean gliders in the Atlantic hurricane region to detect the presence of warm waters that can influence hurricane evolution.

NOTE IN THE TOP ACE INDEX BAR GRAPH . . HOW FROM 2016 TO 2020 . . THE AVG YEAR!
. . SPIKES FROM ROUGHLY . . AN ACE INDEX OF 104! . . TO ROUGHLY . . ACE = 150!
. . INCREASING BY ROGHLY . . 50% . . THE 2022 ACE INDEX EST OF . . 225 IS UP BY 2.2X!
. . THIS IS WHEN . . SIBERIAN METHANE RELEASE . . EXPLODED! . . SO TOO DID . .
. . HURRICANES . . WILDFIRES . . FLOODS . . TORNADOS . . ARCTIC ICE MELT . . ETC!

YOU CAN SEE HOW THIS . . "ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY" . . IS OBVIOUS IN . .
. . THE RISE OF THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES ANNUALLY . . SINCE 2016! . . WHEN . .
. . SIBERIAN METHANE RELEASE SKYROCKETED! SEE METHANE AND BLOG POSTS!
. . NOTE ALSO HOW THE NUMBER OF . . "SUPER STORMS" . . CAT 3 OR HIGHER RISES!

NO WONDER WHY THE IPCCBS . . "DOES NOT" . . INCLUDE "SIBERIAN / ARCTIC METHANE!"
. . "HOT STUFF!" . . YOU NAUGHTY GIRL! . . YOUR RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF . .
. . "THE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE HELL ON EARTH!" . . ALREADY! . . JUST WAIT THOUGH!

"HOT STUFF'S" . . GOING TO PROVE THAT . . "VENUS" . . "AIN'T HOTTER THAN HER!" 2040!

GEEE! DO THE "BRAINLESS RICH & ANTI-CHRISTIAN WHORES" TRULY . . WONDER WHY!?

NOW COMPARE THE FORECAST FOR 2021 / LAST YEAR OF AN . . ACE INDEX . . OF . . 127!
. . TO THIS YEAR'S FORECAST OF . . AN ACE INDEX . . OF . . 225!

"THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" ARE COMING TO . . THE GULF FLORIDA SE US! EXIT NOW!

NOTICE HOW . . THE NUMBER AND POWER OF HURRICANES INCREASES YEAR BY YEAR!
. . IT REALLY STARTED RISING SIGNIFICANTLY IN . . 2016! DRIVEN BY SIBERIAN METHANE!

Timeline of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season BELOW

Timeline of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season BELOW

Timeline of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season BELOW

Timeline of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season BELOW

Timeline of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season AFTER METHANE EXPLOSION! BELOW!
. . CALLED HARVEY TO BE CAT 4 OR 5 DUE TO 83 F SST IN CENTER W GULF BOUY 42002!
. . WHEN THEN "TROPICAL STORM HARVEY" WAS APPROACHING CANCUN, MEXICO!
. . FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS FOR HARVEY TO STAY TROPICAL STORM OR CAT I!

THIS WAS WHEN I CALLED . . "THE BEGINNING OF . . THE ERA OF THE SUPER STORMS!"
. . NOTE THE NUMBER OF SUPER STORMS, CAT 3 4 OR 5 FROM 2014 EXPLODES IN 2017!

Timeline 2016 Atlantic hurricane season - BEFORE METHANE EXPLOSION - BELOW

Timeline 2015 Atlantic hurricane season BELOW

Timeline of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season

Timeline of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

TROPICAL CYCLONES
by Katharina Buchholz,
May 30, 2022

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2022 today as previously released reports had already suggested. The prediction marks the seventh consecutive year an above-average season has been forecast. NOAA predicts six to ten hurricanes to occur in 2022, out of which at least half would be major hurricanes.

While the 2021 seasons included many tropical storms but fewer hurricanes, 2020 was an extremely busy year for hurricanes. A total of 14 formed over the Atlantic basin - the most since 2005, the year of Hurricane Katrina. Six of those were major hurricanes, including Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota. In 2021, four out of seven hurricanes in the Atlantic basin were of category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale, further exemplifying the trend of hurricanes growing more severe over the years.

While in the 1970s and 1980s, the number of major hurricanes stood at an average of around 1.6 per year, this has increased to an average of 3.1-3.8 per year in the 2000s and 2010s. Climate change has been identified as a reason why stronger hurricanes occur.

More evidence that hurricane seasons are changing can be deferred from the timing of named storms. 2021's first storm - Ana - was named on May 22 after forming near the Bahamas. This made 2021 the seventh consecutive year a named storm formed before the start of the official season on June 1. No storm has been named in 2022 so far but a first Tropical Weather Outlook was issued ahead of schedule by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, albeit giving the weather disturbance over the Northern Gulf of Mexico only a 10 percent change of turning into a tropical storm.

2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, was the worst hurricane seasons since 1851, records from the National Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA show. Hurricane Katrina was just one of seven major hurricanes observed in the Atlantic basin that year. 2005 was the year with most hurricanes in the Atlantic (15), followed by 2020 (14), 2010 (12, including Hurricane Sandy) and 1969 (also 12). of Major Hurricanes Over Atlantic Rises

CLIMATE CHANGE
The Atlantic’s vital currents could collapse. Scientists are racing to understand the dangers.

So far, the efforts to observe the currents directly show they're weirder and more unpredictable than expected

by James Temple, MIT Technology Review
December 14, 2021

On a Saturday morning in December of 2020, the RRS Discovery floated in calm waters just east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the massive undersea mountain range that runs from the Arctic nearly to the Antarctic.

The team onboard the research vessel, mostly from the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, used an acoustic signaling system to trigger the release of a cable more than three miles long from its 4,000-pound anchor on the seabed.

The expedition’s chief scientist, Ben Moat, and others walked up to the bridge to spot the first floats as they popped up. The technicians on deck, clad in hard hats and clipped into harnesses, reeled the cable in. They halted the winch every few minutes to disconnect the floats as well as sensors that measure salinity and temperature at various depths, data used to calculate the pressure, current speed, and volume of water flowing past.

The scientists and technicians are part of an international research collaboration, known as RAPID, that’s collecting readings from hundreds of sensors at more than a dozen moorings dotting the Atlantic roughly along 26.5° North, the line of latitude that runs from the western Sahara to southern Florida.

They are searching for clues about one of the most important forces in the planet’s climate system: a network of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Critically, they want to better understand how global warming is changing it, and how much more it could shift in the coming decades—even whether it could collapse.

“Measuring this ocean system is vital to understanding our climate,” Moat says.

The Atlantic circulation is, effectively, one leg of the world’s mightiest river. It runs tens of thousands of miles from the Southern Ocean to Greenland and back, ping-ponging between the southwestern coast of Africa, the southeastern US, and Western Europe.

The system carries warm, shallow, salty water northward, transporting about 1.2 million gigawatts of heat energy across RAPID’s array of moorings at any moment. That’s equivalent to about 160 times the energy capacity of the entire world’s electricity system. The currents, which heat up the surrounding air as they travel northward, are a major factor (though not the only one) in why Western Europe is warmer than eastern Canada even though they lie at roughly the same latitude.

The waters become cooler and denser as they reach the high latitudes, forcing the currents to dive miles below the surface, spread outward, and bend back southward. That sinking of the water deep into the ocean helps propel the system.
The problem is the Atlantic circulation seems to be weakening, transporting less water and heat. Because of climate change, melting ice sheets are pouring fresh water into the ocean at the higher latitudes, and the surface waters are retaining more of their heat. Warmer and fresher waters are less dense and thus not as prone to sink, which may be undermining one of the currents’ core driving forces.

“Measuring this ocean system is vital to understanding our climate.”

Simply put, the currents influence much of the weather we know in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly around the coastal Atlantic but also as far away as Thailand. If the currents change, so too will the weather, disrupting temperature and precipitation patterns that have shaped our lives and societies for centuries.

Some climate models predict that the currents will decline by as much as 45% this century. And evidence from the last ice age shows that the system can eventually switch off or go into a very weak mode, under conditions that global warming may be replicating.

If that happened, it would likely be a climate disaster. It could freeze the far north of Europe, driving down average winter temperatures by more than 10 °C. It might cut crop production and incomes across the continent as much of the land becomes cooler and drier. Sea levels could rise as much as a foot on the Eastern Seaboard, flooding homes and businesses up and down the coast. And the summer monsoons over major parts of Africa and Asia might weaken, raising the odds of droughts and famines that could leave untold numbers without adequate food or water.

It would be a “global catastrophe,” says Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Most scientists say a collapse of the currents is a remote possibility this century, but even a steep slowdown would have significant impacts, potentially cooling and reducing rainfall around the North Atlantic while increasing precipitation across parts of the tropics. It might raise sea level by about five inches off the US southeast coast.

Despite the stakes, scientists have only a coarse comprehension of the currents’ behavior, the balance of the forces that drive them, or their susceptibility to shifting climate conditions. That’s why Moat and others are so keen to observe the Atlantic circulation.

But much of what has been discovered so far is that the Atlantic circulation is more variable, perplexing, and perhaps unpredictable than previously understood.

The Florida Current

NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory is a squat, white five-story building, fringed by palm trees on Virginia Key, a barrier island just a few miles from downtown Miami.

The warm upper layer of the Atlantic circulation, known here as the Florida Current, races past the island, squeezed between the state and the Bahamas. It’s an ideal place to observe one of the most powerful stretches of the system, because the topography of the Florida Straits confines the currents, which can otherwise span hundreds of miles, down to dozens. (The Florida Current is part of the Gulf Stream, a stretch of the Atlantic circulation that traces the southeastern US before cutting across the ocean to Europe.)

NOAA scientists have been monitoring the Florida Straits at around 27° North almost continuously since 1982, in large part by taking advantage of underwater telephone cables. The now-defunct phone lines along the seafloor provide a cheap, unobtrusive way of observing the Atlantic circulation.

The passing seawater creates a voltage along the sides of the cables, which NOAA researchers found they could reliably measure. They receive daily readings from instruments set up in a telephone trunk room on Grand Bahama Island. With careful calibration, they are able to translate those measurements into estimates of how much water flows across that line of latitude.

Meanwhile, William Johns and other oceanographers at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, located just across the causeway from the NOAA lab, have used sensor-strung moorings and other instruments to study the currents east of the Bahamas since the 1980s. They’ve observed both the deep, cool boundary current flowing south and a stretch of the warm northward limb that forks off and flows around the islands.

These efforts began as part of a broader push to improve scientific understanding of how the oceans work and interact with the climate, says Molly Baringer, deputy director of the NOAA lab, who helped develop the cable program.

But the ongoing cable measurements and the historical records have taken on added importance as concerns have grown about the effects global warming could have on the Atlantic circulation, and the impact that could have, in turn, on the climate. “It’s the way the ocean moves around heat,” Baringer says. “You have to understand it to understand climate change.”

Through the 1990s, there were a growing number of other attempts to measure parts of the currents, using short stretches of anchored moorings, drifting floats, shipboard observations, and other means. But oceanographers came to realize that these snapshot observations weren’t enough to fully capture the system’s behavior. They needed ways to continuously monitor the currents across the ocean in order to distinguish short-term fluctuations from long-term trends, among other things.

The UK’s National Oceanography Centre established the RAPID effort in 2004 to do just that, anchoring cables across the Atlantic. It made obvious sense to collaborate with NOAA and the University of Miami research groups as well, taking advantage of those ongoing monitoring efforts.

Moat says the researchers are trying to shed light on how variable the currents are, how much heat they deliver, how much carbon they pull down from the air, how harmonized the southward and northward limbs are, how much local winds influence the system, and—critically—whether or not the Atlantic circulation is slowing down at the rate climate models predict.

Out at sea

On a sunny day in early November, I followed a pair of NOAA researchers down a pier on the southeastern edge of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science campus.

We ascended the gangway onto the F.G. Walton Smith, a 96-foot-long catamaran with dark green hulls and a white deckhouse, owned by the University of Miami.

Roughly every quarter, at least in pre-pandemic times, researchers from both institutions have boarded the vessel for 30-hour sprints out and back to the Bahamas. They use an A-frame and winch on the stern to lower what are known as CTDs into the waters at nine stations along the way, near the line of the old telephone cable.

The CTDs include a carousel of tubes that capture water samples, as well as sensors that measure temperature, pressure, oxygen saturation, and other water properties.

Denis Volkov, one of the principal researchers on NOAA’s monitoring project, explains that these voyages, along with more frequent excursions on smaller vessels, allow the researchers to determine how much heat and salt are moving through the straits, how fast the currents are at varying depths, where the water moving through originates, and how the currents are affecting relative sea levels along the coasts of Florida and the Bahamas.

Separately, the research teams usually go out on longer voyages every 18 months, to remove and replace sensors from three or four moorings on the eastern side of the Bahamas. Their UK counterparts do the same job on the eastern side of the ocean and along the Atlantic Ridge.

Other groups have set up arrays of moorings across different parts of the Atlantic to better understand how varying components work, how tightly the system is connected, and whether changes in one part are rippling throughout.

Susan Lozier, an oceanographer at the Georgia Institute of Technology, leads an international effort known as OSNAP, which began in 2014. It has anchored cables across the Labrador Sea and from the southeastern edge of Greenland to the coast of Scotland.

The hope of the international research effort was to go to the sources of the deep-water sinking, which is largely responsible for propelling the currents in the Atlantic, to “try to get a much better understanding of the mechanisms driving change in the AMOC,” Lozier says.

So far, what the monitoring programs have largely found is that the Atlantic circulation is more variable than previously believed, she says.

Its strength and speed fluctuate dramatically from month to month, year to year, and region to region. Most of the deep-water sinking in the North Atlantic seems to be occurring not in the Labrador Sea, as long believed, but rather in the basins to the east of Greenland. The northward- and southward-flowing limbs operate more independently than previously understood. Local wind patterns seem to exercise a more influential role than expected. And some findings are just befuddling.

It’s very likely that the Atlantic circulation has weakened. Studies by Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute and others have concluded it’s about 15% slower than during the mid-20th century and may be at its weakest in more than 1,000 years. Both findings are based, in part, on long-term reconstructions of its behavior using records like Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the size of grains on the ocean floor, which can reflect changes in deep-sea currents.

There’s also “strong agreement” in models that the currents will continue to weaken this century if greenhouse-gas emissions continue.

But there’s uncertainty about what state the system is in at the moment, and whether the direct observations are aligning with the models.

Data from the RAPID moorings showed a general weakening in the Atlantic circulation from 2004 to 2012, with a sudden 30% drop from 2009 to 2010. That was likely a major contributor to an especially cold winter in northwest Europe in 2012, as well as rapid sea-level rise in that period along the northeastern US coast, reaching about 13 centimeters around New York. The slowdown was an order of magnitude larger than global climate models predicted.

The currents rebounded substantially in the years that followed. But the strength of the circulation is still below where it was when the measurements started. In fact, it has decreased even more than climate-change models predicted.

Some say the data suggests that the system has already shifted into a weaker state. But it showed such a wild swing that others believe it was more likely an indication how much the ocean currents can vary across a decade, rather than any clear result linked to global warming.

Johns says it’s simply unclear at this point. “We can’t be 100% sure whether it’s a longer-term trend—i.e., related to climate change—or an oscillation that can happen naturally,” he said during an interview in his office overlooking the Florida Straits.

An added wrinkle is that the Florida Current flowing by in the background has only declined a small amount since 1982, and not quite a statistically significant amount at that, according to NOAA’s findings. That’s weird, because that powerful, concentrated flow is “the place you’d most expect” to see a weakening trend according to climate models, Johns says. The data is “showing two slightly different stories,” he says.

He and others believe it’s likely to simply take more time—years to decades—before the currents reveal clearly how climate change is affecting them.
A collapseThe reason scientists worry that the Atlantic circulation could dramatically weaken is that it repeatedly did so in the ancient past.

Nearly 13,000 years ago, as the Earth was emerging from the last ice age, the climate across the North Atlantic region suddenly began cooling again. Temperatures plunged back toward nearly glacial-era conditions for a more than 1,000-year period known as the Younger Dryas, named for a wildflower that flourished in the frosty conditions of Europe in that era.

The leading theory on what triggered it involves the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which stretched millions of square miles across North America. As temperatures rose, it rapidly melted, pouring fresh glacial water into the ocean through the Mississippi River.

At some point, ice damming a massive lake on the southern edge of the glacier may have given way, unleashing a flood that possibly rerouted the drainage to the St. Lawrence River. It would have poured fresh water into the North Atlantic through modern-day Quebec.

The massive influx of fresh water could have reduced the salinity and density of the surface water enough to undermine the mechanisms driving the Atlantic circulation at its origin, flipping it off or sending it into a very weak mode, says Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, a paleoclimate researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

By the late 1980s, some scientists started to wonder: Could the effects of global warming halt the currents much as the breakup of the Laurentide likely did, bringing about a more abrupt climate shift than researchers had been considering?

For years, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called a shutdown of the Atlantic circulation this century “very unlikely,” defined as a 0 to 10% probability.

REALLY! . . ONLY A . . 0% TO 10% PROBABILITY! IF . . "YOU" . .
. . BELIEVE . . "IPCCBS FOR THE FAU LIBERAL BILLIONAIRES!"

But as several studies note, the climate models have biases that could overstate the stability of the current, . .
. . in part because they don’t incorporate increasing meltwater from Greenland ice sheets. OMG! SERIOUSLY!

JUST LIKE THE IPCC DOES NOT INCORPORATE SIBERIAN /ARCTIC METHANE!
. . INTO ITS . . CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS! . . THE . . "IPCC" . . "IPCCBS!"
. . DOES NOT INCLUDE THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE . . "SLOWING THE AMOC!"
. . "INCREASING MELTWATER FROM GREENLAND!" THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE!

PLEASE SEE THE PRIOR POSTS: THE LARGEST METHANE SEEP BELCHING 10 TONS OF METHANE PER DAY! THESE MASSIVE SEEPS WILL EXPLODE FROM BARENTS SEA TO THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF! ALL OVER THE ARCTIC! WHEN THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE! BY 2025-7! MELTING ANTARCTICA AND BURNING UP PLANET!

RIGGED! KOCHS RIGGED COVID & HEALTHCARE! EXPLODES COVID! "ICE FREE ARCTIC!" UNLEASHES "HOT STUFF" "GIGATONS OF METHANE!" CAUSED BY STRONG EL NINO EARTHQUAKES AMOC COLLAPSE REDUCED ALBEDO BY 2023-2027! ADD "LATENT HEAT OF FUSION!" = MELTING OF ANTARCTICA

Greenland's Massive Ice Melt Wasn't Supposed To Happen Until 2070

Scott Snowden
NOTE THE DATE: Aug 16, 2019,11:43am EDT

Last week, the world received yet another stark reminder of what's yet to come as temperatures at the highest point of the Greenland ice sheet rose above freezing and melted the snow there for the first time since July 2012 and perhaps only the third time in the last 700 years. The glacier-covered island lost 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day.

As climate scientist Martin Stendel points out, that's enough to cover all of Florida with almost five inches of water. Or, in metric units, enough to cover Germany with almost 7cm of water. Or Denmark with half a meter of water.

What New York City and Jersey City might look like in just 80 years time. NOAA
I WILL SAY BY . . 2025-2027! JAZZIE!

TOP LEFT: RESEARCHERS WALKING ACROSS THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET! GOOD THING THE DOGS SWIM!

Researchers with the Danish Meteorological Institute making their way over meltwater topping sea ice... [+] STEFFEN OLSEN

The ice sheet that covers Greenland is about the same size as the state of Alaska and contains enough ice to raise sea level across the globe by more than 20 feet. Every year, Greenland gains ice during the winter from the accumulation of compacted snow and then during the summer months, it loses ice from melt water and icebergs that calve into the ocean.

A particularly warm, dry spring this year left only a thin covering of snow over exposed glacial ice. The planet has just had it's warmest June on record, followed by the warmest July on record, consequently ice everywhere has been melting, from the glaciers of Greenland to the Himalayas. Thankfully, summer is coming to a close in the northern hemisphere.

"We will occasionally see a little bit of melt occurring well into the fall season, but not anything that has a large impact on the annual mass loss," Thomas L. Mote, research professor of Geography and Atmospheric Science at the University of Georgia, told Forbes.

However, this level of ice melt wasn't supposed to happen for another 50 years.

GEE DO YOU THINK IT MAY BE DUE TO . . THE IPCC . . NOT . .
. . FACTORING THE TWO MOST CRITICAL VARIABLES!
. . DRIVING . . "ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE!" "It Is THE END!"
. . SIBERIAN & ARCTIC METHANE! . . GREENLAND ICE MELT!

"We're seeing changes in Greenland that – when you look at the climate models – are not forecast for, in many cases, for many years to come (50-100 YEARS INTO THE FUTURE!). We understand why in some cases – we understand that the models don't always capture some phenomena like clouds that are very important in the amount of energy that reaches the ice and therefore the amount of ice melt. There are things that the models don't do necessarily as well as we would like and so we understand that behavior and we understand why some quantum models are actually under-predicting, and I should say likely under-predicting the mass loss going forward," Mote says.

NO SHIT! . . WITH . . "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!" . . EXPLOSIVE METHANE!
. . COUPLED WITH . . "THE LATENT HEAT EFFECT!" . . WILL EXPLODE TEMPS!
. . UNLEASHING . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . CAUSING . .

HYPER-EXPONENTIAL . . ANTARCTICA ICE MELT! . . CAUSING . . HYPER-
. . EXPONENTIAL . . SEA LEVEL RISE! . . BURNING UP . . THE WORLDS FOOD!

BURNING UP BILLIONS! . . BILLIONS STARVE! . . WHILE BILLIONAIRES FLEECE US!

THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & SUBPOLAR GYRE . . DUE TO . .
. . GREENLAND ICE MELT! . . WILL PODUCE . . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!"
. . "THE GULF OF MEXICO" . . I CALLED . . "THE PERFECT MONSTER CREATOR!"
. . WHEN I SAID IN 2017 . . "SUPER STORM RAINICANE HARVEY" . . WOULD
. . BE "A MONSTER SUPER STORM," DUE TO THE 83 F CENTER GULF TEMPS!

THIS IS WHEN I CALLED "THE BEGINNING OF THE ERA OF THE SUPER STORMS!"
. . DUE TO THE RAPIDLY RISING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF!
. . WHEN I FIRST WAS TRACKING THEM IN 2015, THEY WERE IN THE 80 F RANGE!
. . THIS TEMPERATURE CREATES . . TROPICAL STORMS! . . 83 F . . WILL . .
. . CREATE A . . CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE! . . 86 F CREATED "TYPHOON HAIYAN!"
. . "THE EARTH'S BIGGEST SUPER TYPHOON!" . . WATCH THE VIDEOS!
. . NOTE HOW LITTLE INCREASE FROM HISTORICAL TEMPS CAUSE . .
. . "THE SUPER MONSTER TYPHOON HAIYAN!" . . JUST A FEW DEGREES!

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN sea surface temperatures (SST) near the Philippines were 86°F (30°C), one degree to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1985-1993 average for the region (baseline years which themselves are warmer than the longer-term average). For context, 2012 global surface temperatures were 1.1°F (0.6ºC) above long-term averages.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR HIGHEST PRESEASON ACE FORECAST WAS DUE TO THE HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE GULF. THE CENTER WEST BOUY, 42002, WAS AT . . 82.6 F . . ALREADY 6/6/22! . . MY GUESTIMATE IS 87 - 88 F 2022!

OMG! IT IS JUST . . 3 DAYS FROM MY PRIOR READING OF 82.6 F! . . 6/9/22 . . 83.5 F!
. . THIS IS UP ALMOST . . 1 F . . .9 F . . IN JUST . . 3 DAYS! . . NOT TO BE BEATEN BY . .
. . THE RISE TO 83.8 F TODAY, 6/10/22, UP . . 1.2 F . . IN 4 DAYS! . . MAYBE 89 F! . .

THINK OF THIS! . . IN 4 DAYS . . THE GULF SST HAS SPIKED 1.2! . . WHEN! . .
. . IT SPIKES ANOTHER . . 2.2 F . . THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA SURFACE TEMPS SST!
. . THE GULF SST WILL BE AT . . 86 F! . . THE TEMP THAT CREATED . . "TYPHOON HAIYAN!"
. . LETS SEE! . . THAT MAY HAPPEN . . BASED ON THE LAST 4 DAYS! . . IN UNDER 8 DAYS!

PEOPLE JUST DON'T GET THE FACT THAT . . "82 F IS A HURRICANE!" . . "86 F IS HAIYAN!"
. . THE RIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS!COULD THIS BE THE YEAR FOR
. . "THE YEAR OF THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER SUPER STORM?!" . . YES IT COULD!

"THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" THAT DESTROY THE MANY NUCLEAR REACTORS AROUND THE GULF & US SE ARE . . COMING TO . . THE GULF, FLORIDA, US SE SOON! PREPEARE AND BETTER YET . . EXIT . . THE GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA AND US SE . . NOW!

Hurricanes and typhoons can form if the sea surface temperature is above 82°F (28°C). Sea surface temperatures near the Philippines were 86°F (30°C), one degree to 1.8 degrees fahrenheit above the 1985-1993 average for the region (baseline years which themselves are warmer than the longer-term average). For context, 2012 global surface temperatures were 1.1°F (0.6ºC) above long-term averages. Sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing around the world’s oceans and are projected to continue to rise.

More remarkable were the sub-surface waters beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase. Ocean temperature at a depth of 328 feet (100 meters) were 5.4°F (3°C) above average,[3] which likely gave Haiyan an immense source of energy as the storm churned up the deeper ocean water.

THIS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE . . "DEEP WATER" . . IS WHAT MAKES . .
. . THE GULF OF MEXICO! . . COMBINED WITH . . THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC!
. . THE UNIQUE SHAPE OF . . THE GULF . . AND LOCATION IN . .
. . THE CARIBBEAN / ATLANTIC . . HURRICANE CORRIDOR! MAKE . . "THE GULF"
. . "THE PERFECT SIBERIAN METHAN SUPER STORM CREATOR!" . .

"THE DEEP WATER TEMPERATURES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO" . . ARE . .
. . "EXPLODING SINCE 2017!" . . THE DEEP WATER W BOUY ROUGHLY 80 F 1978!
. . THE DEEP WATER BOUY TEMP JUMPED TO . . 83 F . . 2017 HARVEY!
. . AND NOW! . . HAS SKYROCKETED TO . . 86 F . . IN 2021! . . MY FORECAST!

87 F TO 88 F IN 2022! . . SKYROCKETING TO . . 91 T0 93 F BY 2025-2027!
. . CREATING . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE SUPER STORM MONSTERS!" . .
. . THAT WILL DESTROY NUCLEAR REACTORS IN THE GULF, FLORIDA SE US!

THE DEEP WATER BOUY 42002 WAS AT 82.6 F . . 3 DAYS AGO! . . 6/6/22! . .
. . IT HAS ALREADY SPIKED TO . . 83.5 . . IN . . 3 DAYS! . . 0.9 F IN 3 DAYS!
. . TIMES 60 TO 90 DAYS TO PEAK TEMPS! . . SERIOUSLY! . . IT LOOKS LIKE . .
. . MY . . 87 F . . TO . . 88 F . . FOR 2022! . . SEEMS POTENTIALLY . . LOW!
. . "SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN" . . WAS CREATED AT . . 86 F! . . WILL . .

2022 BE THE YEAR OF . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE SUPER STORM MONSTER!?"

Evidence indicates that global ocean warmth best explains the average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity, which one study quantifies at 1.3 meters per second over the past 30 years.[6] From 1981-2006, warming SST trends are also correlated to increasing intensity of the strongest cyclones.[7] More research is needed to fully understand the causal relationships, but scientists are actively studying the ongoing correlation between these trends.

THE CENTER GULF BUOY 42002 IS ALREADY AT . . 82.6 F . . 6/6/22!
. . IT HIT . . 86 F . . THAT I SAW LAST SUMMER! . . I BET . . 87-88F IN 2022!

"TYPHOON HAIYAN" . . THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL WAS IN 83 F WATERS!
. . THEY NOTED IT WAS . . THE HOT WATERS DEEP . . THAT GAVE HER POWER!

THESE ONGOING . . VERY WARM SEA SURFACE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES!
. . INSURE . . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!" ESPECIALLY DUE TO ITS . .
. . VERY UNIQUE LOCATION FROM THE EQUATOR! RIGHT IN HURRICANE ALLY!
. . ITS SYMMETRIC SHAPE AND UNIQUE LATITUDE! POSITION IN THE AMOC!
. . SEE THE HURRICANE MAPS ABOVE! . . NOW TURN UP THE TEMPS BY 10-20F!

WITH . . "THE SLOWING OF THE AMOC!" . . THESE WATER TEMPS WILL BLOW!
. . UP UP UP! . . I ANTICIPATE . . 91 F . . BY 2025 . . CAUSING . . 250-300 MPH . .
. . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!" . . DESTROYING THE GULF'S MANY . .
. . NUCLEAR REACORS! . . BY 2025-2027! . . EXIT THE GULF FLORIDA SE US NOW!

"THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" . . "APOCALYPTIC SIBERIAN METHANE" . .
. . "HORRIFIC STORM SURGE" . . WILL DESTROY THE WORLD'S . .
. . 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS BY 2025-2030! . . CAUSING THE WORLD'S . .
. . OCEAN'S TO BECOME HYPER-EXPONENTIALLY ACIDIC & RADIOACTIVE! . .

INSURING THAT . . "THANK GOD!" "It Is THE END!" . . BY 2030-2040!

"We've had a very significant mass loss since 2000. I think one of the things would be particularly alarming is seeing the same kinds of things in Antarctica. For as much ice as there is in Greenland, there's 10 times as much in Antarctica. We're certainly seeing, starting to see signs of more mass loss from Antarctica and I think that would be the, as concerning as Greenland is, Antarctica would even be more alarming," Mote says.

Bernie Sanders has said that a response to climate change should parallel the overnight, nationwide, transformation that took place after Pearl Harbor was attacked in 1941. And he's absolutely right, America has to go to war against climate change; industry must reinvent itself and the attitude and mentality of every person in the country has to change, from every plumber and police officer all the way to the president.

"Planning for the long-term implications of climate change today is as important as planning for a major Pacific conflict was in the last century," writes Cmdr Timothy McGeehan, for the US Naval Institute.

The problem few people seem to realize is, even if this did happen – overnight – the momentum is too great. The human race is a passenger in the car of climate change that's hydroplaning to the cliff edge of an environmental catastrophe.

Richard Engel, chief foreign correspondent for NBC recently said, when talking about glaciers melting in Iceland, "Even if we did all the things that are proposed right now, the inertia of what we've done so far is already too much and all the [Icelandic] glaciers there are all going to go."

Scientists have warned we must limit global temperature rise to 1.5ºC to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. That's compared to the temperatures in 1850-1900, before widespread industrialization. The earth has already warmed about 1ºC since then. If global warming continues at today's rate, temperatures may rise by between 3 to 5ºC by the end of the century.

Back in May, a startling report was published by the National Academy of Science that suggests sea levels may rise much faster than previously estimated due to the accelerating melting of ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica. The study warns that sea levels could rise more than two meters (6.6 feet) by the end of this century if emissions continue unchecked, drowning major cities like London and Hamburg and displacing up to 187 million people worldwide. (MY GUESSTIMATE IS 60' TO 75' OF SEA LEVEL RISE . . BY 2025 TO 2027!)

The international researchers predict that in the worst case scenario under which global temperatures increase by 5°C by 2100, sea levels could rise by more than double the upper limit outlined by the UN climate science panel's last major report. Under this extreme-case scenario, about 1.79 million square kilometers (691,120 sq miles) – an area more than three times the size of California – would be lost to the sea. (KEEP IN MIND THE IPCCBS DOES NOT INCLUDE SIBERIAN/ARCTIC METHANE, NOR GREENLAND ICE MELT! THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF "ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE," INSURING NEAR-TERM HUMAN EXTINCTION (NTHE) SOON!

The United Nations climate panel's last major report in 2013 predicted that sea levels would rise between 52 and 98 cm (20.4 inches and 38.5 inches) by 2100 at the current trajectory. But many experts saw those findings as conservative and scientists are worried that the current models used to predict the influence of massive melting ice sheets have flaws, and fail to capture all of the uncertainties.

If you happen to live near the coast and are wondering how that might affect you, check out the Sea Level Rise Map Viewer published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Coastal Management.

A rise of six feet would put much of Lower Manhattan under water, particularly the areas closet to both the Hudson and East rivers. But that pales in comparison with poor Miami, New Orleans and other low-lying cities in the Florida panhandle and Gulf of Mexico regions, many of which will simply disappear.

So, what about those emissions? Prof Anders Levermannfrom the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, believes that we have to expect a sea level rise of over five meters, even if the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement are met.

The USA is the biggest oil consuming country and accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption per day. Under President Trump, it's also the only country in the world not to agree to the Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. The US military alone generates a daily carbon footprint equal to Portugal, so it's highly unlikely those global targets will be met. WHOOOOO RA! WE KILLED EVERYONE!

Greenland melt events attributed to atmospheric rivers and climate change

Wait, Jason Box. The sky is clear. The team of climate scientists was already in southern Greenland to start their research project, but was stuck in Nuuk, the country’s capital, because the weather delayed its flights. Dark clouds were looming on the horizon, while the thundering rain echoed loudly as it fell on the ocean.

Unbeknownst to him, this weather system caused a historic melt event 660 miles away at the top of Greenland. On August 14, 2021, the system pulled exceptionally warm and humid air from southern latitudes toward the north, driving temperatures about 32° (18°C) higher than normal. Rain, not snow, fell on top of Greenland for the first time ever. Melting continued over the next two weeks, covering 46 percent of the ice sheet. This was the largest melting event to occur late in the year.

“The weather was terrible,” said Box, a professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. “I didn’t know it was as big as it was.”

The “terrible” weather was caused by a narrow, warm pool of water vapor in the sky, known as an atmospheric river. The term “atmospheric river” has recently spread in the media due to its role in extreme weather. When a column of water vapor reaches land, it precipitates as rain or snow. Fall and winter bring a lot of annual California rain, but can also unleash severe flooding. In July 2021, an atmospheric river caused floods in Germany, killing more than 200 people.

In Greenland, these warm rivers in the sky also play a role in the melting of the ice sheet. In a study published Thursday, Box and colleagues shed light on how an atmospheric river triggered the August 2021 melt event and brought rain to the summit. The interpretation predicts a future that could be increasingly common as global temperatures rise due to human-caused climate change.

“What we do know is that the atmospheric river is more about heat. The heat has led to a tremendous amount of melting,” Box said. “What I would argue is abnormal is that there is more heat in the system and you’re getting more extremes.”

More rain and less snow could fall in the Arctic sooner than expected. Here’s why that’s important.

Atmospheric rivers tend to emerge from southern latitudes far from Greenland, where warm air causes ocean water to evaporate into the atmosphere. Guiding winds in the atmosphere help move steam over great distances. Box described rivers as a natural process of energy transfer from the tropics to the poles, noting that “there is a tremendous amount of heat in these circulatory systems.”

When an atmospheric river descended over Greenland in August, the study found that the majority of the melt was caused by rising air temperatures, darkening the surface of the ice sheet and increasing the absorption of sunlight. Satellite data showed that the melting ice infiltrated to higher elevations and exposed the relatively dark bare ice. Where the snow remained, surface melt distorted the snow crystals and made them darker, further melting under sunny skies in the following days.

“The surface is in a dark condition and stays that way for more than a week. This effectively doubles the solubility,” Box said.

Box and colleagues determined that dark snow increased melt by 28 percent in one location at 6,036 feet (1,840 meters). At a site 4,167 feet (1,270 meters) high, they determined that melt would have been halved if the bare ice had not been exposed. The discharge from the Watson River, in the Kangerlussuaq region of central western Greenland, was also the highest for this period in August in 16 years of records.

“One of the main things they pointed out … is how to get these sequential events where the warm air comes in and it rains on the snow,” said Bill Neff, a research scientist at the university’s Collaborative Institute for Environmental Science Research. Colorado Boulder was not involved in the study. “Warm air and radiation from warm clouds can melt the snow and alter the properties of the snow so that melting continues when the sky is clear and the sun is shining.”

Neff said the August thaw was similar to other recent major thaw events. In the past decade, Greenland has experienced three major melt years, 2012, 2019 and 2021, all of which have been associated with atmospheric rivers. Prior to 2012, he said, the last major atmospheric river-related melt event
. . was more than 100 years ago.

The number of rivers in the atmosphere over Greenland “hasn’t changed much. They’ve been going up and down a lot over the past 100 years, but what they’re doing is tapping into the hotter regions on Earth,” he said. “You could have the same number of atmospheric rivers bringing in warm air from all over the place. If there are more places that are getting hotter, there is a greater chance of melting.”

A record heat wave in Antarctica brought exceptional snow, rain and melt. Neff’s research looks at how heat waves play a role in the events of Greenland’s melt. It was previously found that the 2012 Greenland melt season, which remains the largest melt season ever observed, resulted in part from warm air originating from a record heat wave in North America. A heat wave suddenly developed in the Midwest, creating a pulse of hot air that was carried to Greenland by an atmospheric river.

In July 2019, warm air caused by a heat wave in Europe headed to Greenland and helped launch one of the biggest surface melt days ever.

Neff said the August 2021 melt event was related to masses of warm air moving across North America likely related to moisture from the South Atlantic, before moving to the southwest coast of Greenland.

Climate change intensifies these events by increasing the amount of water vapor that an atmospheric river can hold, said Kyle Mattingly, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Warmer weather increases the rate of evaporation and allows more water to enter the vapor phase. His research found that the amount of moisture transferred during the summer melt season in Greenland has been increasing in recent decades.

“If you sum up the amount of moisture that rivers carry into the atmosphere during each melt season, it shows an increasing trend,” said Mattingley, who was not involved in the study released today. “I am absolutely certain that there is a link between increased transport of river moisture into the atmosphere and increased melting of Greenland.”

Record ‘explosive cyclone’ brings exceptional warmth to the Arctic

As the melt season begins this year in Greenland, researchers aren’t sure what to expect because predicting events more than a week or so in advance is challenging. Melt activity has been close to normal so far, apart from slight melt in late May at the edges of the ice sheet.

“There is nothing yet to indicate we are going to have a really big thaw season,” Mattingly said. But again, Mattingly said the record 2012 thaw season also started slowly before accelerating in midsummer.

“You don’t quite know until that happens,” Mattingly said.

JASON BOX WENT TO DENMARK BECAUSE OF HIS CLIMATE VIEWS!
. . IF YOU . . "DON'T SUPPORT THE IPCCBS'S HIGHLY TAINTED VIEWS!"
. . YOU HAVE TO MOVE TO DENMARK! . . THANKS FOR YOUR WORK JASON!
. . FOLLOW . . JASON BOX . . AND . . DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE!
. . WATCH . . "BEFORE THE FLOOD!" . . AND . . THIS "BEFORE THE FLOOD SITE!"

WOW! IT IS . . SCIENTIFICALLY CLEAR! . . HOW CAN YOU TRUST THE IPCC?

THE IPCC IS JUST . . "BS FOR THE BILLIONAIRE FAU LIBERALS!"
. . THE TWO CRITICAL FORCES: SIBERIAN METANE AND GREENLAND ICE MELT!
. . ARE . . NOT . . FACTORED INTO THEIR CLIMATE CHANGE OR AMOC MODELS!

PLEASE SEE THE PRIOR POST: THE LARGEST METHANE SEEP BELCHING 10 TONS OF METHANE PER DAY! THESE MASSIVE SEEPS WILL EXPLODE FROM BARENTS SEA TO THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF! ALL OVER THE ARCTIC! WHEN THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE! BY 2025-7! MELTING ANTARCTICA AND BURNING UP PLANET!

Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River

Jason E. Box, Adrien Wehrlé, Dirk van As, Robert S. Fausto, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Amrin Dachauer, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Ghislain Picard
First published: 02 June 2022

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097356

Abstract

Rainfall at the Greenland ice sheet Summit 14 August 2021, was delivered by an atmospheric river (AR). Extreme surface ablation expanded the all-Greenland bare ice area to near-record-high with snowline climbing up to 788 ± 90 m. Ice sheet wet snow extent reached 46%, a record high for the 15–31 August AMSR data since 2003. Heat-driven firn deflation averaged 0.14 ± 0.05 m at four accumulation area automatic weather stations (AWSs). Energy budget calculations from AWS data indicate that surface heating from rainfall is much smaller than from either the sensible, latent, net-longwave or solar energy fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that without the heat-driven snow-darkening, melt at 1,840 m would have totaled 28% less. Similarly, at 1,270 m elevation, without the bare ice exposure, melting would have been 51% less. Proglacial river discharge was the highest on record since 2006 for late August and confirms the melt-sustaining effect of the albedo feedback.

Key Points

A mid-August 2021 Greenland atmospheric river (AR) produced extreme ice sheet snow cover changes and high proglacial river discharge
Surface heating from rainfall is small compared to latent and sensible heating, net longwave radiation or sunlight absorption
Melt-albedo feedback enhanced upper elevations snow melt under clear skies following the heating delivered by the AR

Plain Language

While rainfall at Summit station atop of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-August 2021 captured global attention, its direct surface thermal effects were weak and unable to explain the major melt and river discharge that occurred during and after the event. Exceptional heating of the ice sheet first occurred due to the heat transfer from condensation and the elevated air temperature during an atmospheric river (AR) episode. Satellite measurements reveal a rapid retreat of the snowline to higher elevations, exposing a large extent of relatively dark bare ice. Where snow remained, darkening due to wet snow metamorphism was responsible for sustained additional solar heating of the upper ice sheet elevations for the following 2 weeks. Observations from automatic weather stations and satellites, and river gauging, reveal that the AR had an immediate and sustained impact.

SO HOW CERTAIN DO . . "YOU" . . NOW . . FEEL ABOUT THE IPCC'S MEDIUM CONFIDENCE . .
. . REPORT THAT A COLLAPSE WON'T OCCUR BEFORE 2100!? . . EVENTS THAT . .
. . THE IPCC FORECASTS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 2070 HAPPENED IN 2019!

The latest UN report, released in August, downgrades the assurance that a collapse won’t occur before 2100 to “medium confidence,” citing that “neglect” in the models as well as the recent findings by a pair of scientists at the University of Copenhagen.

The researchers, Johannes Lohmann and Peter Ditlevsen, ran numerous scenarios on a model developed at the university, turning the knobs on the levels, rates, and time frames of runoff from the Greenland ice sheets.

The general conception of a tipping point is that there’s some fixed physical threshold beyond which the system trips into a different state. But they found that a lesser-known phenomenon known as a rate-induced tipping point, triggered by a sudden increase in the system’s rate of change, might halt the currents as well. In other words, too much change occurring too fast could cause the system to break down.

THIS RATE-INDUCED TIPPING POINT WILL OCCUR! . .
. . "WHEN THE ARCTIC IS COMPLETELY ICE FREE!" 2025-27!

The Atlantic circulation could be susceptible to this if the water flowing from ice sheets increases rapidly enough, according to the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in March.

It’s just one model and one study, but it suggests that the climate system could be more fragile than previously appreciated.

These “chaotic dynamics” mean that “we maybe cannot expect, even if our models get much better, to be able to predict with 100% confidence whether such an element of the climate system will go into another state or not,” Lohmann says.

An August paper by another researcher added to these concerns, concluding that the currents might be closer than expected to the standard sort of tipping point as well.

Scientists have found telltale early warning signs of a collapse in models and geological records from the last ice age, wrote the author, Niklas Boers, a professor of Earth system modeling at the Technical University of Munich and a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

“The only thing we can say is that in the course of the last century the AMOC has moved toward its critical point.”

The signs include decreasing sea-surface temperatures and salinity in the North Atlantic, a salinity “pile-up” in the Southern Atlantic, and a characteristic shift in current patterns known as a “critical slowing down.” Boers found evidence of these warnings across eight different records, suggesting “an almost complete loss of stability.”

“In the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition,” Boers wrote.
But how close is “close?”

In an email, Boers said it remains difficult to define the threshold in terms of a specific global temperature or time, given the numerous layers of uncertainty.

“The only thing we can say is that in the course of the last century the AMOC has moved toward its critical point (which on its own had not been expected by many),” he wrote in an email. “And that with every additional ton of emitted greenhouse gases, we’ll likely push it further.”

Hollywood vs. reality

So what happens if the Atlantic circulation collapses?

The Day After Tomorrow, the popular 2004 disaster film in which an abrupt halt of the currents shock-freezes the Northern Hemisphere over a few nightmarish days, is a wild Hollywood exaggeration. The changes brought about if the network of ocean currents collapsed would unfold over years or decades, not days, and there’s no reason to expect tsunamis flooding Manhattan or ice entombing the city.
But a shutdown would flip the global climate system into a fundamentally different state, inflicting somewhat unpredictable consequences across large parts of the planet.

Related Story
The UN climate report pins hopes on carbon removal technologies that barely exist.

The planet is on track to exceed very dangerous warming levels, leaving us with fewer and fewer options.

Much of Europe could turn into a starkly different world, according to a study by researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK, which closely analyzed the effects on that continent using a high-resolution climate model. Within 50 to 80 years after a massive infusion of fresh water that halts the Atlantic circulation, sea surface temperatures drop as much as 15 °C from the Barents to the Labrador Seas, and 2 to 10 °C across much of the rest of the North Atlantic.

Sea ice drifts farther and farther south, reaching the northern tip of the United Kingdom in late winter.

The continent experiences extensive cooling as well. Winter storms intensify, become more frequent, or both. On average, most of Europe gets drier, aside from the Mediterranean during summer. But more of the precipitation that does fall arrives in the form of snow.

THE PROBLEM WITH THIS THEORY, IS IT IS ASSUMING THAT . .
. . THERE IS . . NOT . . MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF SIBERIAN METHANE!
. . EXPLODING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL TEMPS (GMAT!)
. . BY 2025 TO 2027! . . WHEN . . "THE ARCTIC IS COMPLETELY ICE FREE!"
. . EXPLODING TEMPERATURES AT THE ARCTIC! . . THEN GLOBALLY!

Given these cooler and drier conditions, surface runoff, river flows, and plant growth all decrease.

The Garonne River in southern France carries 30% less water during peak winter periods. Growth in the needleleaf forests of Northern Europe slows by as much as 50%. Crop production “decreases dramatically” in Spain, France, Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Ukraine.

Laura Jackson, the lead author of the study, stresses that it was an “idealized” model, using a large amount of fresh water to quickly shut down the Atlantic circulation and shorten the length of the experiments. “A more realistic scenario, or a different model, might show different magnitudes of change,” she said in an email.

Still, other studies looking beyond Europe have concluded that a collapse or significant weakening of the Atlantic circulation would have wide-scale effects on much of the world.

Some models find that parts of Asia and North America could grow cooler as well. The slowing currents could disrupt the delivery of crucial nutrients, devastating certain fish populations and otherwise altering marine ecosystems.

As the Gulf Stream subsides and flattens, ocean levels could quickly rise eight to 12 inches along the southeastern US. The tropical rain belt could drift south, weakening rainfall patterns across parts of Africa and Asia and ratcheting up monsoons in the Southern Hemisphere.

A certain amount of weakening may act as a counterforce against climate change, mitigating to some degree the warming that would otherwise take place. But how these competing forces balance out overall and over time would depend on multiple, overlapping layers of uncertainty: how much the system weakens; whether it shuts down entirely; how much less carbon dioxide the oceans, forests, and farms pull down; and how much warmer the planet gets.

The ocean mattersThe potential for a steep slowdown or collapse of the AMOC raises difficult questions.

How worried should we be about very low-odds but very high-consequence possibilities like a shutdown will happen this century? How can we properly evaluate the risks and take appropriate actions with so much scientific uncertainty? How much should today’s policy debates or climate actions be shaped by the danger ofY and the press in particular, are overly obsessed with the catastrophe scenario—“the drama” of The Day After Tomorrow, as Lozier puts it.

Molly Baringer, deputy director of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, helped establish NOAA’s effort to monitor the Florida Current using an underwater telephone cable.

This, she stresses, is largely a distraction that misses the point. We don’t need some danger in the distant future to underscore the risks of climate change: there are plenty of serious consequences unfolding in the present.

“I love the AMOC and have studied it forever,” Lozier says. “But when we talk about what we should really be concerned with, it’s ocean warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, hurricanes. These are the things we know are happening. Those are huge impacts. So I think we just always should keep this in mind.”

When I met with Baringer, on a picnic table outside of NOAA’s lab to comply with covid protocols, I asked how concerned she is about climate models predicting a steep slowdown or possible collapse of the Atlantic circulation.

Baringer said she doesn’t “worry that much” about it. That’s in part because she thinks it’s hard to properly account for all the feedbacks in such a complex and roughly understood system—and in part because, like Lozier, she thinks there are more pressing climate concerns. She listed ocean acidification, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise, which she believes the field is largely underestimating.

So why, I asked, is it so important to study the Atlantic circulation?

“I don’t like that question,” she said, “because it’s sort of like asking: Why do we study oceanography in general?

“The ocean matters. The ocean carries a huge amount of heat. It sequesters carbon. It moves nutrients around. If we didn’t have the ocean circulation or upwelling, you wouldn’t have fish. The whole ocean matters, and the AMOC, that large circulation, is a big part of what the ocean is doing.”

But that is also arguably the biggest reason to worry about how human actions could alter one of the planet’s most complex—and exquisite—natural systems. There are, as Lozier and Baringer note, more imminent climate risks to worry about. But in the long term, perturbing this immensely powerful network of ocean currents could be the biggest climate risk the world is taking.

James Temple is MIT Technology Review’s senior editor on climate change.

Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up
By SETH BORENSTEIN, May 28, 2022

Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West’s megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.

“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.

An Associated Press statistical analysis of winter La Ninas show that they used to happen about 28% of the time from 1950 to 1999, but in the past 25 winters, they’ve been brewing nearly half the time. There’s a small chance that this effect could be random, but if the La Nina sticks around this winter, as forecast, that would push the trend over the statistically significant line, which is key in science, said L’Heureux. Her own analysis shows that La Nina-like conditions are occurring more often in the last 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.

What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.

What Seager and other scientists said is happening is that the eastern equatorial Atlantic is not warming as fast as the western equatorial Atlantic or even the rest of the world with climate change. And it’s not the amount of warming that matters but the difference between the west and east. The more the difference, the more likely a La Nina, the less the difference, the more likely an El Nino. Scientists speculate it could be related to another natural cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or it could be caused by human-caused climate change or both.

“At this point we just don’t know,” L’Heureux said. “Scientists are watching and I know, are actively studying. But it’s really important because of regional conditions. We need to get this right.”

La Nina is a natural and cyclical cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide, as opposed to El Nino’s warming. Often leading to more Atlantic hurricanes, less rain and more wildfires in the West and agricultural losses in the middle of the country, studies have shown La Nina is more expensive to the United States than the El Nino. Together El Nino, La Nina and the neutral condition are called ENSO, which stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation, and they have one of the largest natural effects on climate, at times augmenting and other times dampening the big effects of human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists said.

“They really have a very, very strong” effect, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting. “So a third consecutive La Nina is not at all a welcome thing.”

He said the dangerous heat in India and Pakistan this month and in April is connected to La Nina.

The current La Nina formed in the late summer of 2020 when the Atlantic set a record for the number of named storms. It strengthened in the winter when the West’s drought worsened and in the early summer of 2021 it weakened enough that NOAA said conditions were neutral. But that pause only lasted a few months and by early fall 2021 La Nina was back, making it a double dip.

Normally second years of La Nina tend to be weaker, but in April this La Nina surprised meteorologists by setting a record for intensity in April, which is based on sea surface temperatures, Ehsan said.

“These are very impressive values for April,” L’Heureux said. Still, because La Ninas historically weaken over summer and there are slight signs that this one may be easing a bit, there’s the small but increasing chance that this La Nina could warm just enough to be considered neutral in late summer.

La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that’s when it is a problem for the West because it’s the rainy season that is supposed to recharge areas reservoirs. But the West is in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency.

Three factors — ENSO, climate change and randomness — are biggest when it comes to the drought, which is itself a huge trigger for massive wildfires, said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. Without climate change, La Nina and bad luck could have made the drought the worst in 300 years but with climate change it’s the worst in at least 1,200 years, said UCLA climate hydrologist Park Williams.

La Nina “is a pretty important player; it may be the dominant player,” said Swain, who has a blog on Western weather. “It could be responsible for one-third, maybe one-half of the given conditions if it is pronounced enough.”

“It’s much less likely that the Southwest will see at least even a partial recovery from the megadrought during La Nina,” Swain said.

La Nina “amps up your Atlantic storms” but decreases them in the Pacific, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

It’s all about winds 6 to 7 miles (10 to 12 kilometers) above the water surface. One of the key factors in storm development is whether there is wind shear, which are changes in wind from high to low elevations. Wind shear can decapitate or tip over hurricanes, making them hard to strengthen and at times even stick around. Wind shear can also let dry air into hurricanes that chokes them.

When there’s an El Nino, there’s lots of Atlantic wind shear and it’s hard for hurricanes to get going. But La Nina means little wind shear in the Atlantic, making it easier for storms to intensify and do it quickly, said University of Albany hurricane researcher Kristen Corbosiero.

“That’s a really huge factor,” Corbosiero said.

“Whatever is the cause, the increasing incidence of La Ninas may be behind the increasing hurricanes,” MIT’s Emanuel said.

Some areas like eastern Australia and the arid Sahel region of Africa do better with more rain during La Nina. India and Pakistan, even though they get extra spring heat, also receive more needed rain in La Ninas, Columbia’s Ehsan said.

A 1999 economic study found that drought from La Nina cost the United States agriculture between $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion, which is far more than the $1.5 billion cost of El Nino. A neutral ENSO is best for agriculture.

Columbia’s Seager said even though there may be some chance and some natural cycles behind the changes in La Nina, because there’s likely a climate change factor he thinks there will probably be more of them.
___
Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate
___
Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
Niño Regions CLICK TO SEE CRITICAL GRAPHS NOAA

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

Historically, scientists have classified the intensity of El Niño based on SST anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific. The most commonly used region is the Niño 3.4 region, and the most commonly used threshold is a positive SST departure from normal greater than or equal to +0.5°C. Since this region encompasses the western half of the equatorial cold tongue region, it provides a good measure of important changes in SST and SST gradients that result in changes in the pattern of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. The criteria, that is often used to classify El Niño episodes, is that five consecutive 3-month running mean SST anomalies exceed the threshold.

Studies have shown that a necessary condition for the development and persistence of deep convection (enhanced cloudiness and precipitation) in the Tropics is that the local SST be 28°C or greater. Once the pattern of deep convection has been altered due to anomalous SSTs, the tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation adjusts to the new pattern of tropical heating, resulting in anomalous patterns of precipitation and temperature that extend well beyond the region of the equatorial Pacific. An SST anomaly of +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region is sufficient to reach this threshold from late March to mid-June. During the remainder of the year a larger SST anomaly, up to +1.5°C in November-December-January, is required in order to reach the threshold to support persistent deep convection in that region.

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)Warm and cold phases are defined as a minimum of five consecutive 3-month running averages of SST anomalies (ERSST.v5) in the Niño 3.4 region surpassing a threshold of +/- 0.5°C.

Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures

SST values in the Niño 3.4 region may not be the best choice for determining La Niña episodes but, for consistency, the index has been defined by negative anomalies in this area. A better choice might be the Niño 4 region, since that region normally has SSTs at or above the threshold for deep convection throughout the year. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperatures below the 28°C threshold, which would result in a significant westward shift in the pattern of deep convection in the tropical Pacific.

Sea surface temperature anomalies were calculated using the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v5).

SUNDAY, JUNE 5, 2022
Cataclysmic Alignment
Record high carbon dioxide

Sam Carana (Who R U?) Must follow!

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere just broke two records. CO₂ was 421.46 in the week starting May 22, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while CO₂ was 420.99 ppm in May 2022.

Earlier, very high daily and hourly measurements were recorded at Mauna Loa, as illustrated by the image below, showing one hourly measurement of 424 ppm (on May 28, 2022), as well as sequences of daily measurements in the green insets.

The image below shows carbon dioxide concentration rising over the past few years, with surface flask measurements well above 422 ppm at Mauna Loa recently.

Carbon dioxide concentration is even higher over the Arctic. The image below shows carbon dioxide approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska.

To get an idea how much greenhouse gases have risen, a 2021 study points at concentrations of 190 ppm for CO₂, 370-375 ppb for CH₄ and 200-245 ppb for N₂O some 18 ka to 21 ka. By comparison, the MetOp image below shows a global mean methane level that is more than five times as high, i.e. 1945 ppb at 293 mb on May 25, 2022 am.

The MetOp image below shows methane on May 30, 2022 pm, at 742 mb, which is much closer to sea level.

The NOAA 20 image below shows high nitrous oxide levels over the Arctic on June 3, 2022 pm at 1000 mb.

Greenhouse gas levels are very high and there are many further indications that a huge temperature rise could take place over the next few years.

Cataclysmic alignment of El Niño and sunspots

The trigger for such a huge rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of the upcoming El Niño with a high number of sunspots, which look set to reach maximum impact around July 2025.

We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This suppresses the temperature rise.

El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon.

The above NOAA image shows that the difference in temperature between the bottom of a La Niña and the peak of an El Niño can be more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).

A huge temperature rise looks set to unfold soon, first of all in the Arctic, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots.

Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.

The more sunspot, the more the temperature goes up. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F).

The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.

A huge temperature rise in the Arctic

There are many further indications that we're on the brink of a huge temperature rise in the Arctic.

Ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.

As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km².

As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.

Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).
Global temperature rise

This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

Temperatures looks set to rise further, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.

As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.

Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than

18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page.

Conclusion

In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly soon, driving humans extinct by 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum - by Matthew Osman et al. (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4

• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - El Niño
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years.

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4

• MetOp satellite
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi

• NOAA 20 satellite
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• NOAA - sunspots
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• Latent heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Clouds feedback and tipping point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• The Importance of Methane
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

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"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY!" WHEN "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!" "STRONG EL NINO COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & THE 2ND COMING!" "BECOME ONE II!" TRANS HELL! PASSIONATELY LOVE GOD! NOT MONEY! "LOVE OTHERS WITH GOD'S LOVE!" GIVE YOUR WEALTH & LIFE TO GOD!

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HISTORIC HURRICANE SEASON POSSIBLE! "LA NINA" DRIVES HURRICANES WILDFIRES & GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGES! METHANE CARBON EXPLODE! ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MELT GREENLAND! "ICE FREE ARCTIC" 2025/7 = RAPID ICE MELT= AMOC COLLAPSE UNLEASHES "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS!"

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