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Abstract
As I detail, I believe because primary climate groups, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), The Limits to Growth researchers, peak energy writers, and writers on the impacts of "global aging" (Kotlikoff and Burns), due not take into consideration all of these massive driving forces and factors, their findings are limited. Plus, as the Money Monsters (the oil/war lords), the Koch Brothers, the Kochtapus and the Evil Wrong detailed in the book "Dark Money," have squashed any efforts to warn people about the extinction level risk of climate change, these researchers and writers have not considered the massive power play by these ruthless Money Monsters to insure the scaling up of hard fossil fuel and methane hydrates production, when the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff, and hence, there findings ignore this absolutely critical factor in their forecasts. This renders their forecasts findings of limited value, and more realistically, radically misleading and dangerous. When "The Critical Forces and Factors Insuring the Death of All Species in Roughly 100 Years, plus or minus, 50 years" are considered, I argue, the conclusion is clear - "It Is THE END!"
Introduction to Climate Change
For those not familiar with "climate change," these are links to the Wiki, White House, NASA, and EPA overviews of carbon dioxide, methane, methane hydrates and climate change. Obviously, many of my arguments, would be different than theirs, but they are good sites to get an overview, for those not familiar with "climate change." The following documentary, "Climate Change: Its Effects on the Earth after 20 Years," should get you up to speed with these topics (make sure each of these videos start at the beginning, and if you want to see it full screen, click on the "box" on the right corner of the video, then push the "Escape" button when the video is over, to return to this page, plus you may have to wait a few moments when you click on a page, and when you move up and down pages, for the videos to load).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere=
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-record/climate
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases
As I detail, I believe because primary climate groups, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), The Limits to Growth researchers, peak energy writers, and writers on the impacts of "global aging" (Kotlikoff and Burns), due not take into consideration all of these massive driving forces and factors, their findings are limited. Plus, as the Money Monsters (the oil/war lords), the Koch Brothers, the Kochtapus and the Evil Wrong detailed in the book "Dark Money," have squashed any efforts to warn people about the extinction level risk of climate change, these researchers and writers have not considered the massive power play by these ruthless Money Monsters to insure the scaling up of hard fossil fuel and methane hydrates production, when the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff, and hence, there findings ignore this absolutely critical factor in their forecasts. This renders their forecasts findings of limited value, and more realistically, radically misleading and dangerous. When "The Critical Forces and Factors Insuring the Death of All Species in Roughly 100 Years, plus or minus, 50 years" are considered, I argue, the conclusion is clear - "It Is THE END!"
Introduction to Climate Change
For those not familiar with "climate change," these are links to the Wiki, White House, NASA, and EPA overviews of carbon dioxide, methane, methane hydrates and climate change. Obviously, many of my arguments, would be different than theirs, but they are good sites to get an overview, for those not familiar with "climate change." The following documentary, "Climate Change: Its Effects on the Earth after 20 Years," should get you up to speed with these topics (make sure each of these videos start at the beginning, and if you want to see it full screen, click on the "box" on the right corner of the video, then push the "Escape" button when the video is over, to return to this page, plus you may have to wait a few moments when you click on a page, and when you move up and down pages, for the videos to load).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere=
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-record/climate
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases
Climate Change: Its Effect on the Earth After 20 Years - Click here for full screen, then click on the little box in the right hand corner of the screen (click little box)
ABRUPT ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE NOW!
10/27/16 CRITICAL DATA - 2016 On Track for Warmest on Record, average global temperature for January to September is hottest yet, out of 137 years, ratcheting up to 1.58C (2.84F) above baseline, according to NOAA.
10/31/16 - CRITICAL ARTICAL - One Month Above 1.5 C — NASA Data Shows February Crossed Critical Threshold, February crushed other records for the rate of increase in global mean temperatures above baseline, skyrocketing up to 1.57 above baseline. Note that the 1880s, preindustrial baseline, is the most accurate measure to assess what the impact of anthropogenic abrupt climate change, or in lay terms human induced rapid climate change, has been. Look at the graph on the following article of the historical rise of the global mean temperatures above the 19th Century average. I assume this is since modern record keeping began in 1880. This is the "preindustrial" baseline average that reflects the temperature before the widespreadd use of fossil fuels, which started around 1850.
Also note how the very hot regions on the global map are highly concentrated on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, from the Chuckchi Sea across from Alaska, over to the Laptev and Kara Seas, further west. This is where the massive deposits of methane hydrates are stored in a sedimentary drape up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) deep, and a total area of around 2 million square kilometers (1.2 million square miles). Now the only questions, in my opinion, are how long will it take to start really melting Greenland and Antaractica, and how long will it be until these massive stores of methane hydrates are warmed enough to cause a massive general release of 50 gigatons or more, as Dr. Natalia Sarkova believes is not too far off. This would be an increase of 10 times the current atmospheric burden of methane, estimated at just under 5 gigatons of methane. How much would this type of massive general release of methane hydrates skyrocket global mean temperatures? I feel confident in my belief that we shall see in the not too distant future! Welcome to a world of abrupt anthropogenic climate change!
10/31/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL - Analyses reveal record-shattering global warm temperatures in 2015. Notice on this "temperature anomaly chart" how the rise above the 19th Century average was hovering at around .8 to .85 above baseline for many years until 2015. Then it skyrocketed at the end of 2015, and according to the article above, it skyrocketed up to 1.57 above baseline in February. OMG! This is a jump from roughly .85 to 1.57, for roughly a .72 C, or 85% rise in global mean temperatures in just a half of year, from what they had risen from 1880 to 2014. OMG I had no idea that this type of skyrocket in "the rate of growth of the rate of growth" (second derivative) of global mean temperatures was possible! If this isn't "abrupt anthropogenic climate change," I don't know what is!
The Multi-Disciplinary Nature of the Analysis
The multi-disciplinary nature of this analysis (economic demography, political economics, market, investment and macro economic analysis and forecasting - my focuses; combined with climate change and its many sub-disciplines; and, peak energy related disciplines) makes this analysis very complicated. My forecast for the likely Global Soft Recession from now until 2025, and the prospects for a Global Deflationary Soft then Great Depression, from 2025-2035, is due to my background in market, investment and macro economic analysis and forecasting, and economic demography ("The Limits to Growth" and global aging). My forecast for a global Inflationary Great Depression from 2035-2050 is based on these same disciplinary foundations, but also, my work since the early eighties on "The Limits to Growth" and peak energy, and to a lesser degree, climate change. My belief that the world will scale up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, versus solar and wind, from 2030-2050, is due to my work in political economics. My forecast for the potential release of the "Radioactive Methane Monster" from 2050-2075, and the potential for the extinction of the species by around 2100, plus or minus 50 years, is based primarily on my work in political economics, driving the potential growth of hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, instead of solar and wind, when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff," and based on my work in macro-economic forecasting, but then is combined with my understanding of the implications of these potential political economic decisions, based on my work in climate change and nuclear reactor risks.
I just watched a good presentation by Jeff Severinghaus, at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (published 7/25/16), where he concluded that the world could see as 3 foot rise in sea levels in 100 years (presentation is on The 16 Factors and Forces page), so we need to decarbonize the world by 2050. He notes that this would be easy and good for the world, as we can bring manufacturing back to the US, to become the world leaders in solar and wind technologies. I fully agree that we need to decarbonize the world, and it would be great to become the leaders in solar and wind. I believe that the fossil fuel and business interests will drive us toward scaling up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, and therefore, his forecasts about the sea level rise of 3 feet in 100 years, is likely to be very off. Plus, I believe it would be a massive change in the distribution of wealth and power (political economics), to transition to solar and wind, and that it would be extremely difficult, but I do believe it is necessary for most of the world to transition to solar and wind, prior to the world falling off Hubbert's Cliff, to stop the extinction of the species.
Further, the documentary that follows, "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice!," concludes that only a 3-4C rise in global mean temperatures, increased sea levels by up to 60 feet, during the Pliocene period. How does he come up with his conclusion about the 3 foot rise in 100 years, as he doesn't tell us? If the melting of the summer ice in the Arctic may increase global temps by .6C in as little as five years (see Dr. Wadham's research below) sometime soon, from roughly .8C to 1.4C, then isn't it likely to see global temps rise by 1.5C to 2.5C by 2030 to 2050, as the Arctic summer ice will have been gone for 20 plus years by then, and global growth will likely significantly increase global carbon levels, especially due to China's and India's growth. Further, if the world scales up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, instead of primarily solar and wind, during the 2030-2050 time period, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, what I refer to as Hubbert's Cliff, isn't it likely that this will drive global mean temperatures up to 3-4C by 2050-2075. This is especially true, if you believe, as I do, that global mean temperatures are lagging carbon levels, which are similar to the Pliocene period, due to the rapid rise of carbon levels. I believe that global mean temperatures will rise significantly by 2030-2050, catching up with already high carbon levels, which recently hit 409 pmm. If this is the case, and the following documentary is correct on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," that only a 3-4C rise caused up to a 60 foot rise in sea levels, how does Jeff conclude that the world is only facing a 3 foot rise in 100 years?
My Seven Key Points
This should warm you up to the complicated and multidisciplinary nature of the analysis and the problems. In my perspective, all of the data has been, and continues to come in well beyond the "worst case" scenarios that I have been studying since 1980, when I began my work on "The Limits to Growth."
Seven things that I am very convinced of:
1) Very few scientists and professionals in any of these individual disciplines, let alone the politicians, business leaders, or lay people, have any clew about what the world is really facing over the coming decades, let alone by the end of the century, and few, if any, would tell you, even if they did, as they want to keep their good paying science jobs, to insanely high paying Wall Street jobs.
2) It is likely to be much worse than any of us would like to, or could possibly, imagine, let alone, hope for.
3) Anywhere between TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind using my proposed "UN Save the Species Non-debt Based Currency Plan," or something similar, including all of my TransitioNOW objectives, and the increasingly more destructive "business as usual" course the world has been on, is likely to increase the numbers of people living "hell on earth," due to climate change, over population, pollution, and related problems (food shortages, famine, starvation, floods, expanding deserts, droughts, pandemics, wildfires, super storms, failed states, etc., etc.) from around 1/2 the population of the planet. Check out the following article titled "What is the average income of the bottom 50% of the world's population?" Phrasing the question differently. There are over 7.3 billion people on this planet (census.gov). The bottom 50% of working people make this amount per day, or less, and have to feed their families with this? What do you guess the amount is that 50% of the world's working people make per day, or less than this amount?
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-income-of-the-bottom-50-of-the-worlds-population
To as much as 95% to 99% of the world's population living on less than this amount of inflation adjusted equivalent income, or less, by the second half of this century. You've heard of the saying "living like the other half lives," which typically means the top .5% of US households, or .01% of world households. In this case, I believe that the top 1/2 will be living like the bottom half lives now, before all of them ultimately die horrific deaths! Therefore, my prayer is that the world would either embrace all of the TransitioNOW objectives that I have laid out here! Or, just stays the course, where based on my analysis, the species will be extinct by the first half of the next century, at the latest.
To give you a feel of the complicated nature of this argument. I just thought of the idea of doing something to neutralize the methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. The next video I watched was on research north of Norway (below), where the scientist believes that the amount of "iron" in the soil, may be responsible for the lower amounts of methane they were documenting in the Arctic tundra on these islands. Even if we could find the "magic neutralizing compound" to mitigate or eliminate the release of a good amount of the estimated 10,000 plus gigatons of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian Arctic tundra, this would still not stop the likely significant rise in global carbon levels, due to the growth of China and India.
If somehow we could stop these enormous countries from increasing their carbon levels, and TransitioNOW to solar and wind. This would not stop the rise in global carbon levels to well beyond the Pliocene period, 500 ppm plus, due to the increased atmospheric burden of carbon that will occur, just to transition the world globally to wind and solar.
The world would have to not only TransitioNOW to solar and wind, it would have to TransitioNOW to superstructures encasing all ocean and land based nuclear reactors. Even if it did these items, the resulting significant sea level rise of 60 plus feet, will surely flood 80% plus of the world's farm land. This alone will insure the death of most of the planet. However, the species may survive. Even if the world radically embraced all of my TransitioNOW objectives, I argue that most of the species will be dead by the turn of the century. We may get lucky though, and save the species.
However, not only will the world not embrace all of these TransitioNOW objectives, I trust, that none of them will be embraced. When you watch the video "The Limits to Growth: A Final Warning," on The Critical Forces and Factors page, you should get a good idea of why I have no faith in any of these objectives being embraced. Those of us from The Limits to Growth camp have been screaming about the multitude of risks of over population of the planet since 1980 myself, and the authors of "The Limits to Growth" have been since 1972. However, Wall Street and the EMM&MS have trashed us, saying "there are no limits to growth! More trillions for the billionaires is all that is important!" Surely, something as trivial as increasing oil prices, should OPEC cut production, which is being discussed on Bloomberg now, which is likely to increase oil prices somewhat, is like putting a band aid on the Hover Dam prior to it breaking apart!
Quite honestly, the massive risks of climate change melting much of Greenland and Antarctica, increasing global sea levels by 60 feet or more, combined with super storms, imploding and exploding many of the world's nuclear reactors, insuring the death of the species, is from my perspective, saving the world from a much more lengthy and horrific demise, due to the ravages of over population alone. So in a way, climate change is a plus. Relative to the much longer demise of the species, due to simply over population. Plus, the EMM&MS that insured hell on earth, due to their insatiable greed for money and power, would have likely survived over population, ending in a world much like the one portrayed in the movie Elysium. With the remaining super rich living in the modern day version of the walled cities, versus a ring around the world in space as portrayed in Elysium, and the bottom 99.99% living in environmental and economic hell!
The bottom 99% living in hell, while the top 1% live well, and billions dying horrific deaths, is exactly what the "depopulation conspiracy theory" that Jesse Ventura probes in his Conspiracy Theory show, in the section on the Bilderbergers. This segment of his Conspiracy Theory show is no longer on the internet, as on it he receives a communication from one of the Rockefeller family members confirming that they have been heading up the "depopulation agenda," and that it is not a theory, it is a conspiracy reality. He even sends a communication from one of his family members confirming this fact. What an Evil Ruthless Money Monster!
As I like to say, "plan for the worst, and hope that if the species survives, it is at a humane level of survival for the bottom 99%, not just the top 1%!"
4) Due to these many negative driving forces (political economics, global aging, deflation of global asset bubbles, peak energy, and climate change), I am convinced that the world economic and environmental conditions will get increasingly more horrific each decade: bad by 2025-2035, very bad from 2035-2050, and "hell on earth," from 2050 on, until the extinction of all species. It is not just climate change, by any measure. In fact, most of the global economic collapse that I expect prior to 2050, I believe, will be due to the collapse of global asset bubbles, global aging and the massive fiscal gap of the US, but most importantly, running out of cheap oil and gas rapidly, what I refer to as the world falling off "Hubbert's Cliff." The other massive problems will be due to over population related problems (pollution, running out of depleteable natural resources like fresh water, farmable land, phosphorus, rare earth minerals, etc.), and potential problems spawned and accelerated by these prior problems, notably is the possibility of global pandemics. Although, if these arguments are correct, it is climate change that will exacerbate these problems significantly, due to massive storms, expanding deserts and flooding, rising sea levels flooding low lying and farming areas, cities, etc.. The extinction level risk, if these arguments are correct, will be rising sea levels, combined with super storms, causing nuclear reactors to implode and explode, that will insure the extinction of the our species, including the Evil Money Monsters & Money Sluts, the EMM&MS for short, and most, if not, all species.
5) I am absolutely certain which of the options the world will choose in #3, hence why my website, and hoped for book, are titled "TransitioNOW or It Is THE END!", and not "Enlightened Money: The Billionaires Behind the Economic, Environmental and Social Renaissance of the World!" It would be the latter title if I thought the EMM&MS would implement "The ONLY Solution," and all of the TransitioNOW objectives. Instead, the book that you "must read," that I am finishing now is titled "Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right!" These EMM&MS are the ones insuring the death of all species, if my arguments are correct.
6) Therfore, my suggestion is to enjoy the coming decade, as it may be the last good decade on planet earth, and plan for the likelihood of economic and environmental conditions worsening rapidly from that point on. For those that can help to TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind and the other TransitioNOW goals, from the political left, right or any perspective, through my efforts or elsewhere, please please help in any way you can. Even in small personal ways, as, I believe, this brings you closer to Your True Spirit in The God of Love.
Most importantly, 7) Get close to The God of Love! You will need God's peace, love, understanding, strength and willingness to forgive those that "you blame" for the coming hell on earth. It is not God causing these events. It is the EMM&MS, and the legions of their supporters that have damned the world to this economic and environmental hell. But it is God's place to judge and to administer punishment. Seek God's Love, and prepare yourself for the very very difficult future to come, if these arguments are even close to being accurate. Keep your eyes on God's eyes, and your hearts filled with God's Love. Eternity in God's Love is what it is All About!
The Species Level Extinction Risk - Only a 3-4C Rise in Global Temperatures Resulting in 30-60 Feet Sea Level Rise - Imploding and Exploding Ocean Based Nuclear Reactors - Resulting in "The Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop"
The following NOVA documentary on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice!" is the most important documentary I have ever seen .
ABRUPT ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE NOW!
10/27/16 CRITICAL DATA - 2016 On Track for Warmest on Record, average global temperature for January to September is hottest yet, out of 137 years, ratcheting up to 1.58C (2.84F) above baseline, according to NOAA.
10/31/16 - CRITICAL ARTICAL - One Month Above 1.5 C — NASA Data Shows February Crossed Critical Threshold, February crushed other records for the rate of increase in global mean temperatures above baseline, skyrocketing up to 1.57 above baseline. Note that the 1880s, preindustrial baseline, is the most accurate measure to assess what the impact of anthropogenic abrupt climate change, or in lay terms human induced rapid climate change, has been. Look at the graph on the following article of the historical rise of the global mean temperatures above the 19th Century average. I assume this is since modern record keeping began in 1880. This is the "preindustrial" baseline average that reflects the temperature before the widespreadd use of fossil fuels, which started around 1850.
Also note how the very hot regions on the global map are highly concentrated on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, from the Chuckchi Sea across from Alaska, over to the Laptev and Kara Seas, further west. This is where the massive deposits of methane hydrates are stored in a sedimentary drape up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) deep, and a total area of around 2 million square kilometers (1.2 million square miles). Now the only questions, in my opinion, are how long will it take to start really melting Greenland and Antaractica, and how long will it be until these massive stores of methane hydrates are warmed enough to cause a massive general release of 50 gigatons or more, as Dr. Natalia Sarkova believes is not too far off. This would be an increase of 10 times the current atmospheric burden of methane, estimated at just under 5 gigatons of methane. How much would this type of massive general release of methane hydrates skyrocket global mean temperatures? I feel confident in my belief that we shall see in the not too distant future! Welcome to a world of abrupt anthropogenic climate change!
10/31/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL - Analyses reveal record-shattering global warm temperatures in 2015. Notice on this "temperature anomaly chart" how the rise above the 19th Century average was hovering at around .8 to .85 above baseline for many years until 2015. Then it skyrocketed at the end of 2015, and according to the article above, it skyrocketed up to 1.57 above baseline in February. OMG! This is a jump from roughly .85 to 1.57, for roughly a .72 C, or 85% rise in global mean temperatures in just a half of year, from what they had risen from 1880 to 2014. OMG I had no idea that this type of skyrocket in "the rate of growth of the rate of growth" (second derivative) of global mean temperatures was possible! If this isn't "abrupt anthropogenic climate change," I don't know what is!
The Multi-Disciplinary Nature of the Analysis
The multi-disciplinary nature of this analysis (economic demography, political economics, market, investment and macro economic analysis and forecasting - my focuses; combined with climate change and its many sub-disciplines; and, peak energy related disciplines) makes this analysis very complicated. My forecast for the likely Global Soft Recession from now until 2025, and the prospects for a Global Deflationary Soft then Great Depression, from 2025-2035, is due to my background in market, investment and macro economic analysis and forecasting, and economic demography ("The Limits to Growth" and global aging). My forecast for a global Inflationary Great Depression from 2035-2050 is based on these same disciplinary foundations, but also, my work since the early eighties on "The Limits to Growth" and peak energy, and to a lesser degree, climate change. My belief that the world will scale up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, versus solar and wind, from 2030-2050, is due to my work in political economics. My forecast for the potential release of the "Radioactive Methane Monster" from 2050-2075, and the potential for the extinction of the species by around 2100, plus or minus 50 years, is based primarily on my work in political economics, driving the potential growth of hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, instead of solar and wind, when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff," and based on my work in macro-economic forecasting, but then is combined with my understanding of the implications of these potential political economic decisions, based on my work in climate change and nuclear reactor risks.
I just watched a good presentation by Jeff Severinghaus, at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (published 7/25/16), where he concluded that the world could see as 3 foot rise in sea levels in 100 years (presentation is on The 16 Factors and Forces page), so we need to decarbonize the world by 2050. He notes that this would be easy and good for the world, as we can bring manufacturing back to the US, to become the world leaders in solar and wind technologies. I fully agree that we need to decarbonize the world, and it would be great to become the leaders in solar and wind. I believe that the fossil fuel and business interests will drive us toward scaling up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, and therefore, his forecasts about the sea level rise of 3 feet in 100 years, is likely to be very off. Plus, I believe it would be a massive change in the distribution of wealth and power (political economics), to transition to solar and wind, and that it would be extremely difficult, but I do believe it is necessary for most of the world to transition to solar and wind, prior to the world falling off Hubbert's Cliff, to stop the extinction of the species.
Further, the documentary that follows, "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice!," concludes that only a 3-4C rise in global mean temperatures, increased sea levels by up to 60 feet, during the Pliocene period. How does he come up with his conclusion about the 3 foot rise in 100 years, as he doesn't tell us? If the melting of the summer ice in the Arctic may increase global temps by .6C in as little as five years (see Dr. Wadham's research below) sometime soon, from roughly .8C to 1.4C, then isn't it likely to see global temps rise by 1.5C to 2.5C by 2030 to 2050, as the Arctic summer ice will have been gone for 20 plus years by then, and global growth will likely significantly increase global carbon levels, especially due to China's and India's growth. Further, if the world scales up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, instead of primarily solar and wind, during the 2030-2050 time period, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, what I refer to as Hubbert's Cliff, isn't it likely that this will drive global mean temperatures up to 3-4C by 2050-2075. This is especially true, if you believe, as I do, that global mean temperatures are lagging carbon levels, which are similar to the Pliocene period, due to the rapid rise of carbon levels. I believe that global mean temperatures will rise significantly by 2030-2050, catching up with already high carbon levels, which recently hit 409 pmm. If this is the case, and the following documentary is correct on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," that only a 3-4C rise caused up to a 60 foot rise in sea levels, how does Jeff conclude that the world is only facing a 3 foot rise in 100 years?
My Seven Key Points
This should warm you up to the complicated and multidisciplinary nature of the analysis and the problems. In my perspective, all of the data has been, and continues to come in well beyond the "worst case" scenarios that I have been studying since 1980, when I began my work on "The Limits to Growth."
Seven things that I am very convinced of:
1) Very few scientists and professionals in any of these individual disciplines, let alone the politicians, business leaders, or lay people, have any clew about what the world is really facing over the coming decades, let alone by the end of the century, and few, if any, would tell you, even if they did, as they want to keep their good paying science jobs, to insanely high paying Wall Street jobs.
2) It is likely to be much worse than any of us would like to, or could possibly, imagine, let alone, hope for.
3) Anywhere between TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind using my proposed "UN Save the Species Non-debt Based Currency Plan," or something similar, including all of my TransitioNOW objectives, and the increasingly more destructive "business as usual" course the world has been on, is likely to increase the numbers of people living "hell on earth," due to climate change, over population, pollution, and related problems (food shortages, famine, starvation, floods, expanding deserts, droughts, pandemics, wildfires, super storms, failed states, etc., etc.) from around 1/2 the population of the planet. Check out the following article titled "What is the average income of the bottom 50% of the world's population?" Phrasing the question differently. There are over 7.3 billion people on this planet (census.gov). The bottom 50% of working people make this amount per day, or less, and have to feed their families with this? What do you guess the amount is that 50% of the world's working people make per day, or less than this amount?
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-income-of-the-bottom-50-of-the-worlds-population
To as much as 95% to 99% of the world's population living on less than this amount of inflation adjusted equivalent income, or less, by the second half of this century. You've heard of the saying "living like the other half lives," which typically means the top .5% of US households, or .01% of world households. In this case, I believe that the top 1/2 will be living like the bottom half lives now, before all of them ultimately die horrific deaths! Therefore, my prayer is that the world would either embrace all of the TransitioNOW objectives that I have laid out here! Or, just stays the course, where based on my analysis, the species will be extinct by the first half of the next century, at the latest.
To give you a feel of the complicated nature of this argument. I just thought of the idea of doing something to neutralize the methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. The next video I watched was on research north of Norway (below), where the scientist believes that the amount of "iron" in the soil, may be responsible for the lower amounts of methane they were documenting in the Arctic tundra on these islands. Even if we could find the "magic neutralizing compound" to mitigate or eliminate the release of a good amount of the estimated 10,000 plus gigatons of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian Arctic tundra, this would still not stop the likely significant rise in global carbon levels, due to the growth of China and India.
If somehow we could stop these enormous countries from increasing their carbon levels, and TransitioNOW to solar and wind. This would not stop the rise in global carbon levels to well beyond the Pliocene period, 500 ppm plus, due to the increased atmospheric burden of carbon that will occur, just to transition the world globally to wind and solar.
The world would have to not only TransitioNOW to solar and wind, it would have to TransitioNOW to superstructures encasing all ocean and land based nuclear reactors. Even if it did these items, the resulting significant sea level rise of 60 plus feet, will surely flood 80% plus of the world's farm land. This alone will insure the death of most of the planet. However, the species may survive. Even if the world radically embraced all of my TransitioNOW objectives, I argue that most of the species will be dead by the turn of the century. We may get lucky though, and save the species.
However, not only will the world not embrace all of these TransitioNOW objectives, I trust, that none of them will be embraced. When you watch the video "The Limits to Growth: A Final Warning," on The Critical Forces and Factors page, you should get a good idea of why I have no faith in any of these objectives being embraced. Those of us from The Limits to Growth camp have been screaming about the multitude of risks of over population of the planet since 1980 myself, and the authors of "The Limits to Growth" have been since 1972. However, Wall Street and the EMM&MS have trashed us, saying "there are no limits to growth! More trillions for the billionaires is all that is important!" Surely, something as trivial as increasing oil prices, should OPEC cut production, which is being discussed on Bloomberg now, which is likely to increase oil prices somewhat, is like putting a band aid on the Hover Dam prior to it breaking apart!
Quite honestly, the massive risks of climate change melting much of Greenland and Antarctica, increasing global sea levels by 60 feet or more, combined with super storms, imploding and exploding many of the world's nuclear reactors, insuring the death of the species, is from my perspective, saving the world from a much more lengthy and horrific demise, due to the ravages of over population alone. So in a way, climate change is a plus. Relative to the much longer demise of the species, due to simply over population. Plus, the EMM&MS that insured hell on earth, due to their insatiable greed for money and power, would have likely survived over population, ending in a world much like the one portrayed in the movie Elysium. With the remaining super rich living in the modern day version of the walled cities, versus a ring around the world in space as portrayed in Elysium, and the bottom 99.99% living in environmental and economic hell!
The bottom 99% living in hell, while the top 1% live well, and billions dying horrific deaths, is exactly what the "depopulation conspiracy theory" that Jesse Ventura probes in his Conspiracy Theory show, in the section on the Bilderbergers. This segment of his Conspiracy Theory show is no longer on the internet, as on it he receives a communication from one of the Rockefeller family members confirming that they have been heading up the "depopulation agenda," and that it is not a theory, it is a conspiracy reality. He even sends a communication from one of his family members confirming this fact. What an Evil Ruthless Money Monster!
As I like to say, "plan for the worst, and hope that if the species survives, it is at a humane level of survival for the bottom 99%, not just the top 1%!"
4) Due to these many negative driving forces (political economics, global aging, deflation of global asset bubbles, peak energy, and climate change), I am convinced that the world economic and environmental conditions will get increasingly more horrific each decade: bad by 2025-2035, very bad from 2035-2050, and "hell on earth," from 2050 on, until the extinction of all species. It is not just climate change, by any measure. In fact, most of the global economic collapse that I expect prior to 2050, I believe, will be due to the collapse of global asset bubbles, global aging and the massive fiscal gap of the US, but most importantly, running out of cheap oil and gas rapidly, what I refer to as the world falling off "Hubbert's Cliff." The other massive problems will be due to over population related problems (pollution, running out of depleteable natural resources like fresh water, farmable land, phosphorus, rare earth minerals, etc.), and potential problems spawned and accelerated by these prior problems, notably is the possibility of global pandemics. Although, if these arguments are correct, it is climate change that will exacerbate these problems significantly, due to massive storms, expanding deserts and flooding, rising sea levels flooding low lying and farming areas, cities, etc.. The extinction level risk, if these arguments are correct, will be rising sea levels, combined with super storms, causing nuclear reactors to implode and explode, that will insure the extinction of the our species, including the Evil Money Monsters & Money Sluts, the EMM&MS for short, and most, if not, all species.
5) I am absolutely certain which of the options the world will choose in #3, hence why my website, and hoped for book, are titled "TransitioNOW or It Is THE END!", and not "Enlightened Money: The Billionaires Behind the Economic, Environmental and Social Renaissance of the World!" It would be the latter title if I thought the EMM&MS would implement "The ONLY Solution," and all of the TransitioNOW objectives. Instead, the book that you "must read," that I am finishing now is titled "Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right!" These EMM&MS are the ones insuring the death of all species, if my arguments are correct.
6) Therfore, my suggestion is to enjoy the coming decade, as it may be the last good decade on planet earth, and plan for the likelihood of economic and environmental conditions worsening rapidly from that point on. For those that can help to TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind and the other TransitioNOW goals, from the political left, right or any perspective, through my efforts or elsewhere, please please help in any way you can. Even in small personal ways, as, I believe, this brings you closer to Your True Spirit in The God of Love.
Most importantly, 7) Get close to The God of Love! You will need God's peace, love, understanding, strength and willingness to forgive those that "you blame" for the coming hell on earth. It is not God causing these events. It is the EMM&MS, and the legions of their supporters that have damned the world to this economic and environmental hell. But it is God's place to judge and to administer punishment. Seek God's Love, and prepare yourself for the very very difficult future to come, if these arguments are even close to being accurate. Keep your eyes on God's eyes, and your hearts filled with God's Love. Eternity in God's Love is what it is All About!
The Species Level Extinction Risk - Only a 3-4C Rise in Global Temperatures Resulting in 30-60 Feet Sea Level Rise - Imploding and Exploding Ocean Based Nuclear Reactors - Resulting in "The Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop"
The following NOVA documentary on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice!" is the most important documentary I have ever seen .
Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice - Click here for full screen then click little box
The findings of this documentary are that only a 3-4C rise in global mean temperatures, during the Pliocene period (2.58 to 5.33 million years ago), caused the melting of most of Antarctica and the rise in sea levels to as much as 60 feet. Just a few degrees could tip Antarctica from ice to no ice! As the scientists note, this period is important, as it may be what the world is facing by the end of this century. I believe the world will hit 3-4C by 2050-2075, due to scaling up of hard fossil fuels production (tar sands to oil, coal to oil and shale to oil) and methane hydrates production, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, falling off "Hubbert's Cliff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pliocene
The findings of this documentary are that only a 3-4C rise in global mean temperatures, during the Pliocene period (2.58 to 5.33 million years ago), caused the melting of most of Antarctica and the rise in sea levels to as much as 60 feet. Just a few degrees could tip Antarctica from ice to no ice! As the scientists note, this period is important, as it may be what the world is facing by the end of this century. I believe the world will hit 3-4C by 2050-2075, due to scaling up of hard fossil fuels production (tar sands to oil, coal to oil and shale to oil) and methane hydrates production, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, falling off "Hubbert's Cliff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pliocene
Six Degrees Could Change the World: click here for full screen, and a series of videos on this topic, then click the little box
Aftermath: Earth Under Water in the Next 20 Years - click here for full screen, then click little box
"Six Degrees Could Change the World," (2007) discusses what the world might look like at each degree higher, 1 degree warmer, 2 degrees warmer, etc.. What is amazing is that they state that the world could see 4C warmer global mean temperatures by 2070, which I agree with. However, they state that this may result in 3-4 feet in sea level rise. "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice" documented that with only a 3-4C rise in the Pliocene period, sea levels increased by as much as 60 feet! OMG, what a difference, the study of Antarctica made to what we might see happen by the second half of the century! I have this documentary at the end of this page as well, but put it here, as I think that really thinking about what they state we should expect at the beginning of this page, with each degree in rise of global mean temperatures, prior to understanding the recent science findings, and then after reading about and watching the scientific findings since this documentary was made in 2007, will help you to understand how rapidly things are beginning to look horrific. As one of the scientists notes, 6 degrees warmer has been associated with some of the greatest mass extinctions, and if this occurs within a century, we are likely to face nothing less than a global wipe out! As they note, 6 degrees warmer is what is called "the doomsday scenario," which I believe will happen by 2100 - "It Is THE END!"
Just having the sea level rise by this amount is likely to end all life on the planet, when you consider the fact that many of the worlds 448 and growing nuclear reactors are on coasts, to access critically needed water for cooling. Should even a relatively small number of these implode and explode, this may raise temps to 3-4C by 2050-2075, and to 5-7C globally by 2100. Read this article, then consider a 30-60 foot rise in sea levels by 2075.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/12/151215-as-sea-levels-rise-are-coastal-nuclear-plants-ready/
Now, watch this documentary titled "Aftermath: Earth Under Water In The Next 20 years."
Aftermath: Earth Under Water in the Next 20 Years - click here for full screen, then click little box
"Six Degrees Could Change the World," (2007) discusses what the world might look like at each degree higher, 1 degree warmer, 2 degrees warmer, etc.. What is amazing is that they state that the world could see 4C warmer global mean temperatures by 2070, which I agree with. However, they state that this may result in 3-4 feet in sea level rise. "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice" documented that with only a 3-4C rise in the Pliocene period, sea levels increased by as much as 60 feet! OMG, what a difference, the study of Antarctica made to what we might see happen by the second half of the century! I have this documentary at the end of this page as well, but put it here, as I think that really thinking about what they state we should expect at the beginning of this page, with each degree in rise of global mean temperatures, prior to understanding the recent science findings, and then after reading about and watching the scientific findings since this documentary was made in 2007, will help you to understand how rapidly things are beginning to look horrific. As one of the scientists notes, 6 degrees warmer has been associated with some of the greatest mass extinctions, and if this occurs within a century, we are likely to face nothing less than a global wipe out! As they note, 6 degrees warmer is what is called "the doomsday scenario," which I believe will happen by 2100 - "It Is THE END!"
Just having the sea level rise by this amount is likely to end all life on the planet, when you consider the fact that many of the worlds 448 and growing nuclear reactors are on coasts, to access critically needed water for cooling. Should even a relatively small number of these implode and explode, this may raise temps to 3-4C by 2050-2075, and to 5-7C globally by 2100. Read this article, then consider a 30-60 foot rise in sea levels by 2075.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/12/151215-as-sea-levels-rise-are-coastal-nuclear-plants-ready/
Now, watch this documentary titled "Aftermath: Earth Under Water In The Next 20 years."
Even more depressing, the carbon levels during the Pliocene period, ranged from 380 to 450 parts per million, according to this Scientific American article, titled "Ice-free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400PPM'!" The current carbon levels are at 407ppm, just down from their 409 recent high (NOAA). What we did not know when this article was published, May 10, 2013, was that not only was the Arctic ice free, most of Antarctica had melted as well, based on the "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," documentary findings, and sea levels rose by as much as 60 feet. Although global mean temperatures have not risen by 3-4C yet, as they did during the Pliocene period, temperatures lag increases in carbon levels. Carbon and temperatures increased more closely together during the Pliocene period, and the other great extinctions, however, this was because carbon levels increased over thousands of years. Our carbon levels have skyrocketed up from around 280 ppm, prior to the industrial revolution, roughly 150 years ago, hitting 409 ppm during 2016. This very rapid rise in carbon levels, I argue, is why temperatures have not increased as rapidly, along with carbon levels.
I also argue, that when temperatures start rising rapidly, which I expect will be along with further very rapid increases in carbon levels, between 2030-2050, due to scaling up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, temperature increases will start to rise rapidly. We also did not know that with as little as 2C rise, their were super storms (Hansen) that moved thousand ton boulders around. I will present these findings lower down. Combining these findings, I expect that the world will experience significant temperature and carbon increases from 2030-2050, on, and that this will begin to rapidly melt the ice of Greenland and Antarctica, increasing sea levels significantly. These sea level rises, I argue, will be accompanied by super storms. Plus, the world will be running out of cheap oil and gas, falling off Hubbert's Cliff, during this period as well. Hence, why I believe the world economic and environmental conditions will be turning into "hell on earth," by 2050.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/
If you haven't kept up on the impacts of Fukushima, watch this presentation "Perils of Fukushima: A Wake Up Call," by Dr. Stephen Hosea and the next one, titled "Ongoing Lessons of Fukushima and Diablo."
Dr. Stephen Hosea: "The Perils of Fukushima" - click here for full screen, then click little box
Dr. Stephen Hosea: "Ongoing Lessons from Fukushima and Diablo" - click here for full screen, then click little box
I also argue, that when temperatures start rising rapidly, which I expect will be along with further very rapid increases in carbon levels, between 2030-2050, due to scaling up hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, temperature increases will start to rise rapidly. We also did not know that with as little as 2C rise, their were super storms (Hansen) that moved thousand ton boulders around. I will present these findings lower down. Combining these findings, I expect that the world will experience significant temperature and carbon increases from 2030-2050, on, and that this will begin to rapidly melt the ice of Greenland and Antarctica, increasing sea levels significantly. These sea level rises, I argue, will be accompanied by super storms. Plus, the world will be running out of cheap oil and gas, falling off Hubbert's Cliff, during this period as well. Hence, why I believe the world economic and environmental conditions will be turning into "hell on earth," by 2050.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/
If you haven't kept up on the impacts of Fukushima, watch this presentation "Perils of Fukushima: A Wake Up Call," by Dr. Stephen Hosea and the next one, titled "Ongoing Lessons of Fukushima and Diablo."
Dr. Stephen Hosea: "The Perils of Fukushima" - click here for full screen, then click little box
Dr. Stephen Hosea: "Ongoing Lessons from Fukushima and Diablo" - click here for full screen, then click little box
The following are documentaries on the Fukushima and Chernobyl events. Getting an understanding of the extinction level risk of up to a 60 foot sea level rise, and potential consequential implosion and explosion of many of the world's nuclear reactors located on the world's oceans is critical. These documentaries should help.
These are MUST WATCH documentaries:
NUCLEAR EXODUS - click here for full screen, then click little box
Seconds from Disaster - click here for full screen, then click little box
These are MUST WATCH documentaries:
NUCLEAR EXODUS - click here for full screen, then click little box
Seconds from Disaster - click here for full screen, then click little box
The Fukushima Events and Updates:
The Battle of Fukushima - click here for full screen, then click little box
World's Worst Nuclear Disaster - click here for full screen, then click little box
Fukushima Beach - click here for full screen, then click little box
Meltdown Fukushima - click here for full screen, then click little box
The Fukushima Events and Updates:
The Battle of Fukushima - click here for full screen, then click little box
World's Worst Nuclear Disaster - click here for full screen, then click little box
Fukushima Beach - click here for full screen, then click little box
Meltdown Fukushima - click here for full screen, then click little box
The Chernobyl Events and Updates:
Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster - click here for full screen, the click the little box
Radioactive Wolves of Chernobyl - click here for full screen, then click the little box
The Chernobyl Events and Updates:
Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster - click here for full screen, the click the little box
Radioactive Wolves of Chernobyl - click here for full screen, then click the little box
Now that you have some idea of the extinction level risk of a sea level rise of nearly 60 feet threatening the implosion and explosion of many of the world's 448 and growing nuclear reactors, take a look at where many of these nuclear reactors are located. Here is a list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_reactors
Just think of what up to a 60 foot sea level rise would do to Japan's 52, and projected 63, nuclear reactors. You saw the fallout pattern in the Pacific Ocean in Dr. Hosea's presentation above. The fallout would run up to Alaska, and I am most concerned about it going toward the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, but also you would note it would head to the west shores of Canada, and yes, the United States.
http://www.nucleartourist.com/world/japan.htm
Now take a look at the large number of nuclear reactors in Asia on the coast. Where would the fallout go? Up to Alaska, to Canada and the US, and ultimately, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Which, if my arguments are correct, ultimately causing a massive feedback loop of releasing more methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which would then raise sea levels more, combined with super storm, would then threaten the implosion and explosion of more nuclear reactors.
http://www.dgupost.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=1469
At this point, you may be asking yourself, "I wonder what it would take to decommission a nuclear power plant?" The next clip, gives the simple answer, it takes around 25-100 years, and you are left with a massive amount of contaminated spent fuel. In Dr. Hosea's presentation, he notes 60 years as being the best guess as to how long it would take to decommission one nuclear reactor. How many nuclear reactors have been decommissioned? Zero! The spent fuel pools are the massive risk, as Dr. Stephen Hosea notes in his presentation above. Not only is there not time to decommission these existing nuclear reactors, there is no where to put the spent fuel rods, and no one to pay for the decommissioning, which is enormously expensive. Plus, the biggest risk to the extinction of homogreedious, if my arguments are correct, are the large and growing number of Asian based nuclear reactors.
Decommissioning a nuclear power plant - click here for full screen, then click little box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_reactors
Just think of what up to a 60 foot sea level rise would do to Japan's 52, and projected 63, nuclear reactors. You saw the fallout pattern in the Pacific Ocean in Dr. Hosea's presentation above. The fallout would run up to Alaska, and I am most concerned about it going toward the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, but also you would note it would head to the west shores of Canada, and yes, the United States.
http://www.nucleartourist.com/world/japan.htm
Now take a look at the large number of nuclear reactors in Asia on the coast. Where would the fallout go? Up to Alaska, to Canada and the US, and ultimately, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Which, if my arguments are correct, ultimately causing a massive feedback loop of releasing more methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which would then raise sea levels more, combined with super storm, would then threaten the implosion and explosion of more nuclear reactors.
http://www.dgupost.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=1469
At this point, you may be asking yourself, "I wonder what it would take to decommission a nuclear power plant?" The next clip, gives the simple answer, it takes around 25-100 years, and you are left with a massive amount of contaminated spent fuel. In Dr. Hosea's presentation, he notes 60 years as being the best guess as to how long it would take to decommission one nuclear reactor. How many nuclear reactors have been decommissioned? Zero! The spent fuel pools are the massive risk, as Dr. Stephen Hosea notes in his presentation above. Not only is there not time to decommission these existing nuclear reactors, there is no where to put the spent fuel rods, and no one to pay for the decommissioning, which is enormously expensive. Plus, the biggest risk to the extinction of homogreedious, if my arguments are correct, are the large and growing number of Asian based nuclear reactors.
Decommissioning a nuclear power plant - click here for full screen, then click little box
Here is a map of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and an article on why Dr. Shakova from the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) from Russia, they have been researching this area since the nineties. Dr. Shakova and many others consider this region to be the most critical source of methane and carbon release risk on the globe. I will provide more on the risks of methane releases from here and carbon releases from the Siberian Arctic tundra, as this is the most critical risk area, along with these nuclear reactors on Asia's coasts, if my arguments are correct.
https://feww.wordpress.com/category/east-siberian-arctic-shelf/
Now consider the fact that the Pacific Ocean's "Ring of Fire," goes right along where Asia's and the US West Coast nuclear reactors are situated. The Ring of Fire has, according to the following documentary, three quarters of the world's volcanoes, and 90% of all earthquakes happen here. These volcanoes and earthquakes increase the risk of these nuclear reactors imploding and exploding, like Fukushima, and this risk will increase with ongoing climate warming.
Ring of Fire - click here for full screen, then click little box
https://feww.wordpress.com/category/east-siberian-arctic-shelf/
Now consider the fact that the Pacific Ocean's "Ring of Fire," goes right along where Asia's and the US West Coast nuclear reactors are situated. The Ring of Fire has, according to the following documentary, three quarters of the world's volcanoes, and 90% of all earthquakes happen here. These volcanoes and earthquakes increase the risk of these nuclear reactors imploding and exploding, like Fukushima, and this risk will increase with ongoing climate warming.
Ring of Fire - click here for full screen, then click little box
Western Europe would not likely fare much better, take a look at how many nuclear reactors they have on their coasts.
http://www.nuclear-transparency-watch.eu/documentation/position-nuclear-power-plant-europe.html
Extreme weather events are exceeding the most dire forecasts of only a few years ago, and many scientists argue that climate change will continue to increase extreme weather events and earthquakes, as the following documentary, "The Year The Earth Went Wild," details.
The Year the Earth Went Wild - click here for full screen, then click little box
http://www.nuclear-transparency-watch.eu/documentation/position-nuclear-power-plant-europe.html
Extreme weather events are exceeding the most dire forecasts of only a few years ago, and many scientists argue that climate change will continue to increase extreme weather events and earthquakes, as the following documentary, "The Year The Earth Went Wild," details.
The Year the Earth Went Wild - click here for full screen, then click little box
If you add to these findings, the chances of methane hydrate massive burps and carbon general releases, known as the "clathrate gun," of tens of gigatons occurring in the not too distant future (see following articles), and the implosion and explosion of the world's 448 and growing nuclear power plants, due to sea level rise of up to 60 feet, and global economic collapse. The world may exceed the extinction of 96% of life lost, which occurred in the greatest extinction event, The Permian Extinction, in our own Homogreedious Induced Sixth Great Extinction! The first link is to Wikipedia's description of the Permian Extinction, known as the Great Dying, which occurred roughly 252 million years ago, where it is estimated that 96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate went extinct. The second link is to a Nova documentary on the Permian Extinction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event
Nova: Permian Extinction - click here for full screen, then click little box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event
Nova: Permian Extinction - click here for full screen, then click little box
Many scientists compare our current period to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), around 55 million years ago, as global mean temperatures rose 5-8C. The first documentary found that most of Antarctica melted during the Pliocene period (2.58 to 5.33 million years ago), due to only a 3-4C rise in global mean temperatures, raising global sea levels by as much as 60 feet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
The Bottom Line - How Homogreedious will Become Extinct in 100 Years, plus or minus, 50 Years
My argument is that an ice free Arctic, combined with global growth, primarily India and China, will increase global temperatures to 2-3C by 2050. This will precipitate ongoing super storms and sea level rise of up to 6 feet, that will cause massive destruction around the world, including risks to ocean based nuclear reactors, at a time when the world will be transitioning from a Global Deflationary Great Depression, to a Global Inflationary Great Depression (2030-2050). The scaling up of primarily hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, from 2030-2050, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, falling off Hubbert's Cliff, will facilitate a much more rapid rise in global carbon levels, than currently forecast. This factor, along with the much longer time that the Arctic will be ice free, than currently forecast, will cause large general releases of methane hydrates and carbon in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian and Arctic permafrost, respectively. These forces, along with global mean temperatures, I argue, rising more rapidly than carbon levels, will facilitate a rise in global temperatures to 3-4C, like the Pliocene period, by 2050-2075. As the documentary on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," documented, this may raise global sea levels by as much as 60 feet. The result of this large of a sea level rise, combined with ongoing super storms, I argue, will implode and explode many of the ocean based nuclear reactors, notably the Asian based. This massive radioactive fall-out, I believe, will warm waters going ultimately up to the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, causing large general releases of tens, to even hundreds, of gigatons of methane hydrates. This potentially massive release of methane, I argue, will spike global temperatures, ultimately melting a meaningful portion of Greenland and Antarctica ice, and resulting in even further rise of global sea levels, while increasing the strength, severity and frequency of super storms. The collapse of global civilization, by this time, I believe, will result in the implosion and explosion of land based nuclear reactors. "The Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop," I argue, will result in the extinction of all species around 2100, plus or minus 50 years, due to the long life and extensive impacts on species extinction of radiation releases of this potentially enormous amount.
Getting to Extinction - The First Step - An Ice Free Arctic - Increases Global Temps by .6C by 2030 - 2-3C by 2050 with Global Growth
Here is a 2006 Discovery Channel documentary titled, "Global Warming - What You Need To Know," with Tom Brokaw. What is most interesting to me in this documentary is that Tom Brokaw states that researchers forecast that in 60 years we may see an ice free Arctic. We may hit ice free this year, 2017, or within the next few years, just over ten years later! Estimates are now for an ice free Arctic in the next few years! Just a bit short of this 60 year forecast, don't you think!? Also of interest is that we have known for 10 years in popular works like this, the extinction level risks the world is facing. As you will read toward the end of this chapter, I believe that even Obama has been a disaster to the extinction level risk of global warming, due to "frack baby frack," and his support of nuclear power, it appears, thanks to Bill Gates.
Discovery Channel - Global Warming, What You Need To Know, click here for full screen, then click the little box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
The Bottom Line - How Homogreedious will Become Extinct in 100 Years, plus or minus, 50 Years
My argument is that an ice free Arctic, combined with global growth, primarily India and China, will increase global temperatures to 2-3C by 2050. This will precipitate ongoing super storms and sea level rise of up to 6 feet, that will cause massive destruction around the world, including risks to ocean based nuclear reactors, at a time when the world will be transitioning from a Global Deflationary Great Depression, to a Global Inflationary Great Depression (2030-2050). The scaling up of primarily hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production, from 2030-2050, when the world runs out of cheap oil and gas, falling off Hubbert's Cliff, will facilitate a much more rapid rise in global carbon levels, than currently forecast. This factor, along with the much longer time that the Arctic will be ice free, than currently forecast, will cause large general releases of methane hydrates and carbon in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian and Arctic permafrost, respectively. These forces, along with global mean temperatures, I argue, rising more rapidly than carbon levels, will facilitate a rise in global temperatures to 3-4C, like the Pliocene period, by 2050-2075. As the documentary on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," documented, this may raise global sea levels by as much as 60 feet. The result of this large of a sea level rise, combined with ongoing super storms, I argue, will implode and explode many of the ocean based nuclear reactors, notably the Asian based. This massive radioactive fall-out, I believe, will warm waters going ultimately up to the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, causing large general releases of tens, to even hundreds, of gigatons of methane hydrates. This potentially massive release of methane, I argue, will spike global temperatures, ultimately melting a meaningful portion of Greenland and Antarctica ice, and resulting in even further rise of global sea levels, while increasing the strength, severity and frequency of super storms. The collapse of global civilization, by this time, I believe, will result in the implosion and explosion of land based nuclear reactors. "The Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop," I argue, will result in the extinction of all species around 2100, plus or minus 50 years, due to the long life and extensive impacts on species extinction of radiation releases of this potentially enormous amount.
Getting to Extinction - The First Step - An Ice Free Arctic - Increases Global Temps by .6C by 2030 - 2-3C by 2050 with Global Growth
Here is a 2006 Discovery Channel documentary titled, "Global Warming - What You Need To Know," with Tom Brokaw. What is most interesting to me in this documentary is that Tom Brokaw states that researchers forecast that in 60 years we may see an ice free Arctic. We may hit ice free this year, 2017, or within the next few years, just over ten years later! Estimates are now for an ice free Arctic in the next few years! Just a bit short of this 60 year forecast, don't you think!? Also of interest is that we have known for 10 years in popular works like this, the extinction level risks the world is facing. As you will read toward the end of this chapter, I believe that even Obama has been a disaster to the extinction level risk of global warming, due to "frack baby frack," and his support of nuclear power, it appears, thanks to Bill Gates.
Discovery Channel - Global Warming, What You Need To Know, click here for full screen, then click the little box
Now compare the Global Warming documentary you just watched, to this discussion on the Tom Hartman show, this June 2016, ten years later, with Professor Peter Wadhams, ScD, Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge University. Note his bio, impressive, to say the least.
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/
Professor Wadhams notes that an ice free Arctic, which is calculated as less than 1 million square kilometers, may happen this September 2016, or by next year at the latest. Note this is not fifty years from now, as the prior documentary noted scientists forecast ten years ago. Here is an article titled "Arctic could be ice free for the first time in 100,000 years, claims leading scientist," discussing Professor Wadhams research.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
In this article they note: "The last time the Arctic was clear of ice is believed to be about 100,000 to 120,000 years ago. The rapid warming of the polar region has been linked with extreme weather events such as “bomb cyclones”, flooding in the UK and out-of-season tornadoes in the United States."
Ice Free Arctic? - click here for full screen, then click little box
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/
Professor Wadhams notes that an ice free Arctic, which is calculated as less than 1 million square kilometers, may happen this September 2016, or by next year at the latest. Note this is not fifty years from now, as the prior documentary noted scientists forecast ten years ago. Here is an article titled "Arctic could be ice free for the first time in 100,000 years, claims leading scientist," discussing Professor Wadhams research.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
In this article they note: "The last time the Arctic was clear of ice is believed to be about 100,000 to 120,000 years ago. The rapid warming of the polar region has been linked with extreme weather events such as “bomb cyclones”, flooding in the UK and out-of-season tornadoes in the United States."
Ice Free Arctic? - click here for full screen, then click little box
With the melting of the Arctic sea ice, he notes you could see a methane pulse or general release, which he estimates may increase global mean temperatures by as much as .6C in five years. To put this rise in perspective, the rise since the start of the industrial revolution is roughly .8C, so the melting of the summer sea ice, he now estimates could increase global mean temperatures by 75% (.6/.8) of the rise since the start of the industrial revolution, roughly 150 years ago, in just five years!
In Dr. Wadhams' upcoming book "A Farewell to Ice," (September 2016), the overview states:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01GT1YT0A/ref=oh_aui_d_detailpage_o05_?ie=UTF8&psc=1#nav-subnav
"Most of the scientific establishment predict that the North Pole will be free of ice around the middle of this century. As Peter Wadhams, the world's leading expert on sea ice, demonstrates in this book, even this bleak assessment of the future is grossly optimistic. Wadhams has visited the Polar Regions more often than any other living scientist - 50 times since he was on the first ship to circumnavigate the Americas in 1970 - and has a uniquely authoritative perspective on the changes they have undergone and where those changes will lead. From his observations and the latest scientific research, he describes how dramatically sea ice has diminished over the past three decades, to the point at which, by the time this book is published, the Arctic may be free of ice for the first time in 10,000 years.
Wadhams shows how sea ice is the 'canary in the mine' of planetary climate change. He describes how it forms and the vital role it plays in reflecting solar heat back into space and providing an 'air conditioning' system for the planet. He shows how a series of rapid feedbacks in the Arctic region are accelerating change there more rapidly than almost all scientists - and political authorities - have previously realised, and the dangers of further acceleration are very real."
Two points to also consider. First is how drastic the change has been in summer sea ice retreat, versus the forecast ten years ago. Plus, none of these climate scientists incorporate the possible "Critical Driving Factors and Forces" (next page) that I believe are possible, given the massive push to have the world scale up hard fossil fuel and methane hydrate production, when the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff.
Professor Wadhams notes that the world has already passed the "tipping points," where there is no return to the prior world state or condition, of not having significant summer sea ice in the Arctic, and the world will not see the growth of multiple year ice over the Arctic, as the ongoing melting will prohibit this growth of ice.
I argue that the world is past the most important "tipping point" - the point at which we can change industrial society to a renewable energy sustainable world, before the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff." In my view, this opportunity was stolen from the American people at the turn of the century, along with so much more, which was proof that it would be the oil and war lords that would insure the death of all species. These events at the turn of the century, along with the efforts of the Koch Brothers, the Kochtapus, and the EMM&MS in the book "Dark Money," I argue, will insure the rapid scaling up of hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff," resulting ultimately in the extinction of all species.
10/27/16 Positive News - "Rapid ice growth follows the seasonal minimum, rapid drop in Antarctic extent." Arctic Sea Ice Extent is only 5th lowest on satellite recorded history, not hitting the definition of an ice free Arctic, which is 1 million square miles or less. The bad news is that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the Laptev and Kara Seas, are completely free of ice. As this is the area that Dr. Natalia Sarkova discusses at length at the bottom of this page, in my opinion, having this area free of ice is the only real critical factor. The remaining areas are not expected to have a great deal of methane hydrates, while there are upwards of 10,000 gigatons of methane hydrates estimated to be in the 2 million square kilometers (1.2 million square miles) on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. As she notes, the sedimentary drape is up to 20 kilometers thick (12 miles thick), where it is only around 1-2 kilometers thick in the rest of the ocean. More importantly, it is very shallow water, so when the methane hydrates are released, instead of being absorbed into the water, most of the methane is released into the atmosphere. So the issue of an "ice free Arctic," in my opinion is misplaced. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf has been ice free for many summers now, and according to the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and Dr. Sarkova's group, the US Russia Methane Research Group, it is very close to a large general release of up to 50 gigatons (see Guy McPherson's presentation below). This would be 10 times the current atmospheric burden of methane, of just under 5 gigatons. So the "ice free Arctic" debate is misguided. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is ice free all summer, and is close to releasing massive amounts of methane hydrates. It is only a matter of time! Having the rest of the Arctic ice free is a relatively meaningless issue, as below this ice is insignificant amounts of methane hydrates, at depths that make it of little consequence.
In Dr. Wadhams' upcoming book "A Farewell to Ice," (September 2016), the overview states:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01GT1YT0A/ref=oh_aui_d_detailpage_o05_?ie=UTF8&psc=1#nav-subnav
"Most of the scientific establishment predict that the North Pole will be free of ice around the middle of this century. As Peter Wadhams, the world's leading expert on sea ice, demonstrates in this book, even this bleak assessment of the future is grossly optimistic. Wadhams has visited the Polar Regions more often than any other living scientist - 50 times since he was on the first ship to circumnavigate the Americas in 1970 - and has a uniquely authoritative perspective on the changes they have undergone and where those changes will lead. From his observations and the latest scientific research, he describes how dramatically sea ice has diminished over the past three decades, to the point at which, by the time this book is published, the Arctic may be free of ice for the first time in 10,000 years.
Wadhams shows how sea ice is the 'canary in the mine' of planetary climate change. He describes how it forms and the vital role it plays in reflecting solar heat back into space and providing an 'air conditioning' system for the planet. He shows how a series of rapid feedbacks in the Arctic region are accelerating change there more rapidly than almost all scientists - and political authorities - have previously realised, and the dangers of further acceleration are very real."
Two points to also consider. First is how drastic the change has been in summer sea ice retreat, versus the forecast ten years ago. Plus, none of these climate scientists incorporate the possible "Critical Driving Factors and Forces" (next page) that I believe are possible, given the massive push to have the world scale up hard fossil fuel and methane hydrate production, when the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff.
Professor Wadhams notes that the world has already passed the "tipping points," where there is no return to the prior world state or condition, of not having significant summer sea ice in the Arctic, and the world will not see the growth of multiple year ice over the Arctic, as the ongoing melting will prohibit this growth of ice.
I argue that the world is past the most important "tipping point" - the point at which we can change industrial society to a renewable energy sustainable world, before the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff." In my view, this opportunity was stolen from the American people at the turn of the century, along with so much more, which was proof that it would be the oil and war lords that would insure the death of all species. These events at the turn of the century, along with the efforts of the Koch Brothers, the Kochtapus, and the EMM&MS in the book "Dark Money," I argue, will insure the rapid scaling up of hard fossil fuels and methane hydrates production when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff," resulting ultimately in the extinction of all species.
10/27/16 Positive News - "Rapid ice growth follows the seasonal minimum, rapid drop in Antarctic extent." Arctic Sea Ice Extent is only 5th lowest on satellite recorded history, not hitting the definition of an ice free Arctic, which is 1 million square miles or less. The bad news is that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the Laptev and Kara Seas, are completely free of ice. As this is the area that Dr. Natalia Sarkova discusses at length at the bottom of this page, in my opinion, having this area free of ice is the only real critical factor. The remaining areas are not expected to have a great deal of methane hydrates, while there are upwards of 10,000 gigatons of methane hydrates estimated to be in the 2 million square kilometers (1.2 million square miles) on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. As she notes, the sedimentary drape is up to 20 kilometers thick (12 miles thick), where it is only around 1-2 kilometers thick in the rest of the ocean. More importantly, it is very shallow water, so when the methane hydrates are released, instead of being absorbed into the water, most of the methane is released into the atmosphere. So the issue of an "ice free Arctic," in my opinion is misplaced. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf has been ice free for many summers now, and according to the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and Dr. Sarkova's group, the US Russia Methane Research Group, it is very close to a large general release of up to 50 gigatons (see Guy McPherson's presentation below). This would be 10 times the current atmospheric burden of methane, of just under 5 gigatons. So the "ice free Arctic" debate is misguided. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is ice free all summer, and is close to releasing massive amounts of methane hydrates. It is only a matter of time! Having the rest of the Arctic ice free is a relatively meaningless issue, as below this ice is insignificant amounts of methane hydrates, at depths that make it of little consequence.
The Climate Data Continuously Exceeds "Worst Case Scenario" Forecasts
It seems like every week I locate research that concludes the rate of climate change is increasing at a much worse rate than even the most dire forecasts just a few years ago. Watch the following presentation (3/26/16) on a couple of new studies that conclude "What we are doing to the earth has no parallel in 66 million years." Because the rise in carbon levels in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), occurred over around 4,000 years, and today it is happening in around 200 years, the authors conclude that the ocean and terrestrial species will be unlikely to adapt to these changes, and therefore the loss of life may exceed the PETM. We are throwing carbon into the atmosphere at around 10 times the rate that resulted in the PETM. They note that when you study the PETM, and consider what we are doing, you "get scared!"
At arctic-news.blogspot.com, they state, instead of 2100 being the date of anticipated disastrous climate change occurring, it may by 2026! In part, it is because the Arctic ice sheet is melting much faster than anyone had expected. They conclude that because summer Arctic ice may be gone in as little as four years from now, the loss of reflexivity and the fact that heating water uses less calories of heat than melting ice does, the explosive release of large amounts of undersea methane has become a real risk to humanity! I would add that the possible implosion and explosion of the world's 448 and growing nuclear reactors, and the consequential radiation related problems, may cause all species to go extinct.
It seems like every week I locate research that concludes the rate of climate change is increasing at a much worse rate than even the most dire forecasts just a few years ago. Watch the following presentation (3/26/16) on a couple of new studies that conclude "What we are doing to the earth has no parallel in 66 million years." Because the rise in carbon levels in the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), occurred over around 4,000 years, and today it is happening in around 200 years, the authors conclude that the ocean and terrestrial species will be unlikely to adapt to these changes, and therefore the loss of life may exceed the PETM. We are throwing carbon into the atmosphere at around 10 times the rate that resulted in the PETM. They note that when you study the PETM, and consider what we are doing, you "get scared!"
At arctic-news.blogspot.com, they state, instead of 2100 being the date of anticipated disastrous climate change occurring, it may by 2026! In part, it is because the Arctic ice sheet is melting much faster than anyone had expected. They conclude that because summer Arctic ice may be gone in as little as four years from now, the loss of reflexivity and the fact that heating water uses less calories of heat than melting ice does, the explosive release of large amounts of undersea methane has become a real risk to humanity! I would add that the possible implosion and explosion of the world's 448 and growing nuclear reactors, and the consequential radiation related problems, may cause all species to go extinct.
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Super Storms - for full screen click here, then click little box
Here is the link to the article Tom Hartman refers to titled "Scientists Warn of Perilous Climate Change in Decades, not Centuries." The first link is the NY Times article, the second is to the technical paper titled, "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global warming could be dangerous."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/science/global-warming-sea-level-carbon-dioxide-emissions.html?_r=0
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
In this soon to be released paper by Dr. James Hansen, at the Huffington Post, the authors suggest that a relatively modest warming that happened around 120,000 years ago, not that different than today, except that the carbon levels were not rising as rapidly, produced planet wide super storms, that moved thousand ton boulders around! Be sure to take a look at one of these boulders in the article!
As Dr. Wadham just noted, the ice free Arctic, could happen next month, September 2016, but will certainly be within the next few years. This may raise global temperatures from around .8C, by .6C, to 1.4C - 2C by 2025-2030, including global growth, especially China and India. This is how the world may get to experiencing significant super storms that Dr. Hansen fears.
"Chasing Ice" is an exceptional documentary, a must watch. Here is the link on Netflix.
https://www.netflix.com/watch/70229919?trackId=13752289&tctx=0%2C0%2Cf19c511b8b7e49238eac9b93e49e5cee529e287d%3A62187905ae02abde34816d1ffce3a944603a5de8
Here is the link to the article Tom Hartman refers to titled "Scientists Warn of Perilous Climate Change in Decades, not Centuries." The first link is the NY Times article, the second is to the technical paper titled, "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global warming could be dangerous."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/science/global-warming-sea-level-carbon-dioxide-emissions.html?_r=0
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
In this soon to be released paper by Dr. James Hansen, at the Huffington Post, the authors suggest that a relatively modest warming that happened around 120,000 years ago, not that different than today, except that the carbon levels were not rising as rapidly, produced planet wide super storms, that moved thousand ton boulders around! Be sure to take a look at one of these boulders in the article!
As Dr. Wadham just noted, the ice free Arctic, could happen next month, September 2016, but will certainly be within the next few years. This may raise global temperatures from around .8C, by .6C, to 1.4C - 2C by 2025-2030, including global growth, especially China and India. This is how the world may get to experiencing significant super storms that Dr. Hansen fears.
"Chasing Ice" is an exceptional documentary, a must watch. Here is the link on Netflix.
https://www.netflix.com/watch/70229919?trackId=13752289&tctx=0%2C0%2Cf19c511b8b7e49238eac9b93e49e5cee529e287d%3A62187905ae02abde34816d1ffce3a944603a5de8
Ocean Acidification: The oceans are becoming more acidic, and will start dying off rapidly, as the following documentary shows. One expert believes that the beautiful coral reefs will all be dead in a few decades, so get your diving in soon! Although rising level of acid in the oceans is certainly a global concern, the potential impacts of causing the global oceans to become contaminated with massive amounts of radioactive waste, should many of the ocean based nuclear reactors implode and explode, due to rising ocean levels and super storms, is the species level extinction risk that I am arguing is very real, as soon as the second half of this century. The "Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop," I am arguing here, will be the species risk that ultimately insures the death of all ocean life, while the implosion of the nuclear reactors on land, due to the demise of global societies, will insure the demise of land based species, as Guy McPherson has been arguing for some time now. Their optimism at the end of this documentary is uplifting, but in my view, unfounded, given the reality I lay out on this web site. In my view, what the world is choosing is obvious, BS (billions) for the Billionaires, at the expense of the oceans, at the expense of our species.
Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification, click here for full screen, then click the little box
Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification, click here for full screen, then click the little box
"Earth of Fire: The new environmental disaster waiting just around the corner," provides heart warming information about how climate change is threatening many of our lives. The third video below is by President Obama's Science Advisor, Dr. John Holdren, "Climate Change and Wildfires Explained in Less Than Three Minutes." In Tahoe, August 2016 has been beautiful, warmer than normal, mid-eighties, and dry. Perfect for sailing Tahoe, but as the third documentary details, "Climate & Extreme Weather News, August 16-20th 2016," it has been horrific in many parts of the world, including many parts of the US.
In this recently published news spot (8/4/16) by Tom Hartman, titled "The Most Disturbing Climate Change-Events We've Seen Yet," he takes us to Siberia, where 71 people were hospitalized and one child died, after an outbreak of Anthrax. The massive heat wave in the Siberian permafrost melted many layers of permafrost, exposing anthrax infected reindeer that died around 70 years ago. Tom then interviews Dr. Charles Miller, CARVE Research Scientist and Principal Investigator. He notes that they are studying the carbon cycles in the Arctic, as these are seen as the "canary in the coal mine." The Arctic permafrost is thought to have roughly 1,500 gigatons (billions) of carbon, while the Arctic sea floor, he states, is estimated to have tens of thousands of gigatons of methane hydrates. He notes that permafrost is soil that remains frozen for more than two years. Typically, you may see 10-40cm of topsoil that thaws, but below this the permafrost is typically frozen as hard as cement. With the current thawing, infrastructure and buildings built on this permafrost are failing. He notes that since the industrial revolution, roughly 350 billion gigatons of carbon has been released from all fossil fuel activities. A release of just 10-20% of the Arctic permafrost carbon, and the release of methane hydrates in the Arctic ocean, would double to amount of carbon released, since the start of the industrial revolution, in a much shorter time period.
The key finding of the documentary on "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath The Ice," proving that it only took 3-4C rise to melt most of the continent, and raise sea level to as much as 60 feet, are significantly different than prior forecasts. This new information proving that only a much smaller rise in global mean temperatures can threaten extinction, is similar to the much more rapid release of methane in the Siberian permafrost and East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the much more rapid melting of the Arctic summer ice, all three with dire consequences. In my opinion, the global mean temperatures will go rapidly by the 3-4C level, due to the arguments following. I hope that I am wrong, but in my opinion, these findings are the nails in the extinction of all species in the not too distant future. The only question is when, in my view, not if, most species, including, homogreedious, will go extinct in the near future!
Keep in mind, the discussion so far, has not considered the potential climate change risks being increased by: over population, which is detailed by "The Limits to Growth" related research; "global aging," which is detailed by Kotlikoff and Burns in "The Clash of Generations," (2014) and "The Coming Generational Storm" (2005); and, especially "peak energy" which I use the presentation by Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett.
Keep in mind, the discussion so far, has not considered the potential climate change risks being increased by: over population, which is detailed by "The Limits to Growth" related research; "global aging," which is detailed by Kotlikoff and Burns in "The Clash of Generations," (2014) and "The Coming Generational Storm" (2005); and, especially "peak energy" which I use the presentation by Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett.
"The Methane Monster" - "Clathrate Gun" - Runaway Climate Change Argument
This is a good overview of the "clathrate gun," "Methane Monster" (2014) or runaway climate change argument, by researcher Jennifer Hynes. Note the massive methane hydrates in the Siberian Arctic permafrost and the East Siberian Arctic shelf, and the projected release of these massive stores by mid century. The second video, "Methane Monster II" is Jennifer's 2015 presentation.
This is a good overview of the "clathrate gun," "Methane Monster" (2014) or runaway climate change argument, by researcher Jennifer Hynes. Note the massive methane hydrates in the Siberian Arctic permafrost and the East Siberian Arctic shelf, and the projected release of these massive stores by mid century. The second video, "Methane Monster II" is Jennifer's 2015 presentation.
For up to date Arctic methane information, click on the following links. As Jennifer notes, these are MUST SEE and revisit sites!
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
https://robertscribbler.com/
Paul Beckwith's work on the extinction level risks of Arctic methane is notable, in this Youtube presentation, he provides an overview of a review paper titled "Effects of climate change on methane emissions from seafloor sediments in the Artic Ocean: A review" published May 17, 2016. The first is his must watch Youtube presentation, followed by the link to the paper. Be sure to note the ranges of the estimates of how much methane is in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and how much carbon is estimated to be in the Siberian and Arctic area tundra.
If you take a look at the table on the estimates of how much methane is estimated to be in Marine sediments, the amount of Methane hydrate is a range of 30 - 9,000 gigatons, and in Submerged permafrost, from 2 - 1,400 gigatons; and in Terrestrial Permafrost Carbon, 1,330 - 1,580, for a total estimate of 1,362 gigatons to 11,980 gigatons of methane hydrate and permafrost carbon combined. It notes that the atmospheric burden of methane is 4.95 gigatons around the globe.
Most people, like Dr. Sahakova, place the range in the many thousands of gigatons. There are roughly 5 gigatons, see the table on this paper, of carbon around the globe today. So we are talking hundreds to thousands of times the amount of methane as is currently around the globe today. Note that I will discuss on the next page the IPCC research on climate change globally, and the issue of calculating the possible impacts of methane releases in these areas. I will hold you in suspense to see what the big issues are about this major attempt of UC Berkeley to calculate this risk of methane in these critical regions using a super computer for the IPCC. Care to guess what my major issues are? How accurate do you think I believe the will be with their massive super computer?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
https://robertscribbler.com/
Paul Beckwith's work on the extinction level risks of Arctic methane is notable, in this Youtube presentation, he provides an overview of a review paper titled "Effects of climate change on methane emissions from seafloor sediments in the Artic Ocean: A review" published May 17, 2016. The first is his must watch Youtube presentation, followed by the link to the paper. Be sure to note the ranges of the estimates of how much methane is in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and how much carbon is estimated to be in the Siberian and Arctic area tundra.
If you take a look at the table on the estimates of how much methane is estimated to be in Marine sediments, the amount of Methane hydrate is a range of 30 - 9,000 gigatons, and in Submerged permafrost, from 2 - 1,400 gigatons; and in Terrestrial Permafrost Carbon, 1,330 - 1,580, for a total estimate of 1,362 gigatons to 11,980 gigatons of methane hydrate and permafrost carbon combined. It notes that the atmospheric burden of methane is 4.95 gigatons around the globe.
Most people, like Dr. Sahakova, place the range in the many thousands of gigatons. There are roughly 5 gigatons, see the table on this paper, of carbon around the globe today. So we are talking hundreds to thousands of times the amount of methane as is currently around the globe today. Note that I will discuss on the next page the IPCC research on climate change globally, and the issue of calculating the possible impacts of methane releases in these areas. I will hold you in suspense to see what the big issues are about this major attempt of UC Berkeley to calculate this risk of methane in these critical regions using a super computer for the IPCC. Care to guess what my major issues are? How accurate do you think I believe the will be with their massive super computer?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.10307/full
This is a link to his blog, a must review site as well.
https://paulbeckwith.net/
At the low end of this range of the amount of marine methane hydrates and permafrost carbon, this is roughly 5 times the amount of carbon that has been released since the beginning of industrial society, roughly 300-350 gigatons (billions of tons)! I would tend to believe that Dr. Shakova, and the scientist at the IARC, and her estimate that it is in the many of thousands range, as they have been monitoring and analyzing this area significantly more than any other research group, from my perspective. Many scientists believe that the large holes being found in Siberia are due to the release of methane hydrates and permafrost carbon in large quantities already. This release of methane was not expected to start occurring until global mean temps rose significantly more.
Watch this documentary on "Arctic Death Spiral and The Methane Time Bomb," for more on this.
This is a link to his blog, a must review site as well.
https://paulbeckwith.net/
At the low end of this range of the amount of marine methane hydrates and permafrost carbon, this is roughly 5 times the amount of carbon that has been released since the beginning of industrial society, roughly 300-350 gigatons (billions of tons)! I would tend to believe that Dr. Shakova, and the scientist at the IARC, and her estimate that it is in the many of thousands range, as they have been monitoring and analyzing this area significantly more than any other research group, from my perspective. Many scientists believe that the large holes being found in Siberia are due to the release of methane hydrates and permafrost carbon in large quantities already. This release of methane was not expected to start occurring until global mean temps rose significantly more.
Watch this documentary on "Arctic Death Spiral and The Methane Time Bomb," for more on this.
Siberian Permafrost Massive Holes are Increasing Annually
As Guy McPherson, author of "Going Dark," and many other books on climate change notes in the following discussion on Youtube, scientists documented 50,000 times the normal methane levels around the Laptev Sea where these massive holes were discovered in 2014. Again, I will ask you to ponder the observation that was made in the Laptev Sea in 2014 of 50,000 times the normal level of methane. Also note the rise in the number of large holes that many believe have released large amounts of methane and carbon, being found in subsequent years. Plus, I will ask you to keep these observations close to your memory, for when you watch the documentary by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories using their super computer to estimate the methane release risk of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the carbon and methane release risk Siberian and Arctic tundra, for the IPCC modeling efforts to incorporate this primary critical risk to the survival of the species into their models.
As he argues, this is proof that these methane releases, or "Dragon Burps," have started runaway climate change, which is referred to as the clathrate gun has been fired. He notes that he was first concerned about the methane release from the seabed in the Arctic, given these new massive methane holes, he believes that the methane release from the permafrost represents a "double barrel shot gun" of the clathrate gun being fired, and evidence that we are in runaway climate change now.
Guy keeps an updated list of "self-reinforcing feedback loops" which reinforce the rate of acceleration of climate change. His web site guymcpherson.com is a great resource as well. Here is the list.
http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/self-reinforcing-feedback-loops-2/
What is not included on his list, is the possible future impact of the implosion and explosion of the world's nuclear reactors, due to the collapse of global civilization, which he has argued for, and the rise of sea levels up to 60 feet, on reinforcing climate change at an unimaginable rate.
The following article on these massive methane holes was published in Ecowatch (8/2/14), and according to Guy, is the evidence that runaway climate change has now started. Guy notes that as of this 2014 article three holes had been discovered, only one, in his view, is catastrophic.
http://www.ecowatch.com/methane-blow-holes-sign-of-runaway-climate-change-1881940496.html
Here is one of the more recent articles (2015) on the large holes being found in the Siberian permafrost. It documents they have now discovered 7 of these massive holes, which has over doubled in just one year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3159067/Mystery-Siberia-s-200ft-deep-craters-solved-Enormous-holes-formed-methane-eruptions-triggered-melting-permafrost.
In this documentary, published 10/18/15, "The Permafrost Mystery: Scientist explore giant Yamal," scientist follow an indigenous tribe in the Siberian tundra to many of these giant holes being discovered. As one scientist notes, there is no doubt that hundreds of these new lakes being found, are due to methane release. It is the rapid release of these methane hydrates that many scientists believe accelerated many of the past extinction events, and may accelerate the possible extinction of homogreedious.
http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/self-reinforcing-feedback-loops-2/
What is not included on his list, is the possible future impact of the implosion and explosion of the world's nuclear reactors, due to the collapse of global civilization, which he has argued for, and the rise of sea levels up to 60 feet, on reinforcing climate change at an unimaginable rate.
The following article on these massive methane holes was published in Ecowatch (8/2/14), and according to Guy, is the evidence that runaway climate change has now started. Guy notes that as of this 2014 article three holes had been discovered, only one, in his view, is catastrophic.
http://www.ecowatch.com/methane-blow-holes-sign-of-runaway-climate-change-1881940496.html
Here is one of the more recent articles (2015) on the large holes being found in the Siberian permafrost. It documents they have now discovered 7 of these massive holes, which has over doubled in just one year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3159067/Mystery-Siberia-s-200ft-deep-craters-solved-Enormous-holes-formed-methane-eruptions-triggered-melting-permafrost.
In this documentary, published 10/18/15, "The Permafrost Mystery: Scientist explore giant Yamal," scientist follow an indigenous tribe in the Siberian tundra to many of these giant holes being discovered. As one scientist notes, there is no doubt that hundreds of these new lakes being found, are due to methane release. It is the rapid release of these methane hydrates that many scientists believe accelerated many of the past extinction events, and may accelerate the possible extinction of homogreedious.
Sadly, these indigenous people, who have seen their reindeer herds drop from 500 to 100, due to a large rise in sickness, I believe, caused by these high levels of methane releases, see it as a sign that the Gods are not happy with them, that they have done something wrong. I would argue that it is the worlds few hundred thousand insanely rich Money Monsters that have caused these events to occur, not them, they are just some of the first to suffer the consequences of the Money Monsters insane greed.
Enormous Mounds of Methane Found Under Arctic Sea
In the following link, the article title reads "Enormous mounds of methane found in the Arctic sea: Underwater pingos may reveal "worrying" clues about climate change." These massive mounds, or pingos, underwater, are the equivalent of the massive holes on land, except they still have not released the methane. Not a good sign of what the world may be facing in the not too distant future.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3325230/Enormous-mounds-methane-Arctic-sea-Underwater-pingos-reveal-clues-climate-change.html
East Siberian Arctic Shelf Ice Is Dropping Dramatically
In this interview with Dr. Shakova from the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), in Russia she reviews their methane research going back to the nineties and how the risks of the sea ice dropping from 2 meters thick to only 40cm thick over this time, on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, is very concerning. Dr. Igor Semiletov notes that all of these events, the sea ice drop over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the massive methane hydrate holes, suggest that "the worse thing might happen," not in thousands or hundreds of years, but in decades, to the turn of the century, at most! Welcome to runaway climate change!
Enormous Mounds of Methane Found Under Arctic Sea
In the following link, the article title reads "Enormous mounds of methane found in the Arctic sea: Underwater pingos may reveal "worrying" clues about climate change." These massive mounds, or pingos, underwater, are the equivalent of the massive holes on land, except they still have not released the methane. Not a good sign of what the world may be facing in the not too distant future.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3325230/Enormous-mounds-methane-Arctic-sea-Underwater-pingos-reveal-clues-climate-change.html
East Siberian Arctic Shelf Ice Is Dropping Dramatically
In this interview with Dr. Shakova from the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), in Russia she reviews their methane research going back to the nineties and how the risks of the sea ice dropping from 2 meters thick to only 40cm thick over this time, on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, is very concerning. Dr. Igor Semiletov notes that all of these events, the sea ice drop over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the massive methane hydrate holes, suggest that "the worse thing might happen," not in thousands or hundreds of years, but in decades, to the turn of the century, at most! Welcome to runaway climate change!
This is a series of climate specialists, including Guy, Natalia from Russia, and others studying the methane hydrates issues.
Neutralizing Methane In the Arctic
"Rethinking Methane in the Artic" (added 9/23/16) provides some positive hope for understanding why some areas are less methane dense, like these islands north of Norway, and some are more methane dense, like the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian permafrost. I am not quite sure what to make of his findings about how iron may reduce methane, and if this may be applied to massive methane stores, like Siberia, so I don't quite know what to make of it, except that it sounds positive. As I proposed on the Summary page, some type of foam to neutralize or absorb the methane, instead of allowing it to escape to the atmosphere, another approach may be using iron, or some other substance, to neutralize it, before it escapes. We can only hope that something like this works on the Siberian massive stores of methane, before they are released, and potentially melt Greenland, and much of Antarctica. Although these are glimpses of positive news, it is too bad that the EMM&MS due not just embrace a global transformation to wind and solar, and eliminate this extinction risk. The problems of falling off Hubbert's Cliff, running out of cheap oil and gas, would not be solved, even if science can solve the massive methane risk in Siberia.
Neutralizing Methane In the Arctic
"Rethinking Methane in the Artic" (added 9/23/16) provides some positive hope for understanding why some areas are less methane dense, like these islands north of Norway, and some are more methane dense, like the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and the Siberian permafrost. I am not quite sure what to make of his findings about how iron may reduce methane, and if this may be applied to massive methane stores, like Siberia, so I don't quite know what to make of it, except that it sounds positive. As I proposed on the Summary page, some type of foam to neutralize or absorb the methane, instead of allowing it to escape to the atmosphere, another approach may be using iron, or some other substance, to neutralize it, before it escapes. We can only hope that something like this works on the Siberian massive stores of methane, before they are released, and potentially melt Greenland, and much of Antarctica. Although these are glimpses of positive news, it is too bad that the EMM&MS due not just embrace a global transformation to wind and solar, and eliminate this extinction risk. The problems of falling off Hubbert's Cliff, running out of cheap oil and gas, would not be solved, even if science can solve the massive methane risk in Siberia.
Scientists Face Strong Resistance To Climate Findings and Data
Dr. Natalia Shakhova notes in this interview that they are experiencing strong resistance from political and other forces, against their findings and research on these methane holes and related methane releases on the Siberia Arctic sea shelf.
This is an interview with Kevin Anderson, deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and professor of energy and climate change at the University of Manchester in Britain ahead of the UN climate change summit in Paris, who argues that even the mainstream scientists are downplaying the risks implied by their findings on climate change. Might I say, I concur!
Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak Out
"Arctic Emergency: Scientist Speak Out," (2014) is a MUST WATCH documentary - one of the best I have seen, that should help you put together the story that I have been presenting so far. What is good, is that I just found this documentary, after developing this site, just before I hope to send it to many people. So it was fortuitous. If you know of other exceptional documentaries, presentations, academic papers, or articles, especially ones with new findings, that I do not have on this site, I would deeply appreciate it if you send them to me. Keep in mind that the findings presented by "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath the Ice," about how small of a temperature change it took to melt most of Antarctica, 3-4C, and raise global sea levels by up to 60 feet, nor the paper by Dr. Hansen, et. al., about how only a 2C rise may result in super storms, were not known by the time of this documentary. The most critical points that I took away from this exceptional documentary were by Dr. Nikita Zimov, Director, Pleistocene Park Russian Academy of Sciences, he states there is more carbon in the one small area of Siberia, than there is above ground in all the rest of the world!
THE MOST IMPORTANT DISCUSSION ON MY SITE - WHY "It is THE END!"
This is the most critical point, made by Dr. Natalia Sahakovia, Director, U.S. - Russia Methane Study, International Arctic Research Center. Please, please, watch her comments a number of times, as in my opinion, they are THE most critical, along with the documentary "Antarctica: Secrets Beneath The Ice," plus her English is good, but the technical nature of the discussion, combined with a slight language difference, makes it important that you watch her discussion on this topic three times. As she states, the sedimentary drape in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is up to 20 kilometers thick (12.4274 miles), versus around 1 kilometer thick in the rest of the ocean. The sedimentary drape area on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is huge, it is 2 million square kilometers (1,242,740 square miles), it is the largest shelf in the world oceans. This sedimentary drape is where the massive amounts of methane hydrates are stored, and due to the fact that this drape is roughly 20 times as thick as it is in most of the ocean floor and because it is the largest ocean shelf in the world, it is estimated to hold these massive amounts of methane hydrates. In the ocean, when the methane hydrates are released, the methane is absorbed and used on its way to the surface. On the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, because it is so shallow, the methane reaches the atmosphere. Warming these methane hydrates may release these massive stores of methane, and they will make their way to the atmosphere, potentially causing a massive increase in the atmospheric burden of methane, which may then spike global temperatures. As a result of their drilling of this sedimentary drape, they have concluded that the methane hydrates are close to being released NOW! The result of this potential massive general release of methane, I argue, may result in melting not only the Arctic and Greenland, but as we know now, potentially much of Antarctica' ice. Further, this potential warming may cause super storms and when combined with global sea level increases, may then result in the implosion and explosion of many of the world's ocean based nuclear reactors, resulting in, I argue, "The Radioactive Methane Monster Feedback Loop."
Their suggested ways to get started I fully agree with, although, I believe that "The ONLY Solution," which is "The UN Save the Species Currency Plan," along with the TransitioNOW objectives, have the chance to save the species. However these are great ideas as well. They are:
1) Dismantle the fossil fuel (and earth destroying) economy - Which is the precise objective of "The UN Save the Species Currency Plan"
2) Don't believe the hype around greenwashed "solutions"
3) Let your actions reflect the urgency of the situation
4) Work towards economic contraction, not growth - - I could not agree more, however, in my following segment on "The Limits to Growth," I argue that the Business, Political and Religious Leaders will Ignore All Limits to Growth! Hence, why "It Is THE END!"
5) Build alternative ways of living
6) Protect wild nature
An exceptional documentary, the only thing I would add, the world better implement "The ONLY Solution," which is "The UN Save the Species Currency Plan," to TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind, before the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff, or "It Is THE END!"
1) Dismantle the fossil fuel (and earth destroying) economy - Which is the precise objective of "The UN Save the Species Currency Plan"
2) Don't believe the hype around greenwashed "solutions"
3) Let your actions reflect the urgency of the situation
4) Work towards economic contraction, not growth - - I could not agree more, however, in my following segment on "The Limits to Growth," I argue that the Business, Political and Religious Leaders will Ignore All Limits to Growth! Hence, why "It Is THE END!"
5) Build alternative ways of living
6) Protect wild nature
An exceptional documentary, the only thing I would add, the world better implement "The ONLY Solution," which is "The UN Save the Species Currency Plan," to TransitioNOW to Solar and Wind, before the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff, or "It Is THE END!"
Why "It Is THE END" - Abrupt Climate Change - The Hard Truth, click here for full screen, then click box
10/18/16 - CRITICAL NEW VIDEO - Why "It Is THE END" - Abrupt Climate Change - The Hard Truth
(Uploaded 10/9/16)This is a great summary of many of the lead scientist that see near-term extinction as likely, Guy McPherson, Paul Beckwith, David Wasdell, etc.. Scientists Guy McPherson provides his summary of why "It Is THE END" at the end of this video, along with his list of people forecasting near-term human extinction, a list I obviously belong to. He remains more optimistic than I do, with his belief that we should all be dead within a short period of time. I am less optimistic, and believe it may take 50-150 years of "hell on earth" before all of our species is extinct. He also provides his list on the 58 feedback loops, as of Nov 2015, reinforcing climate change, and notes that NASA's CARVE project detected 150 kilometer methane plumes in the Arctic back in July 2013, which recent articles have documented are greater than estimated.
OMG, when I first put this video on my site last week, I was cleaning the kitchen, and missed the most important point of the video. Just now I was watching it closely from the beginning to take notes, especially related to what Guy was saying about the Troposphere. Then the next item, which I must have missed the first time, came across, and it was OMG are you serious!
"NASA recently released data confirming the February was the warmest month ever measured globally, at 1.57 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline average. The new record easily smashed the old global temperature average, which was set one month before, in January."
"This means that while it took from the advent of the industrial age until October 2015 to warm the planet 1 degree Celsius, humans have managed to warm the planet another .57 degree Celsius in just the next four months since then."
This is the link to the article which documents this massive rise in the global mean temperature in February 2016, on the truth-out.org site.
10/23/16 CRITICAL ARTICLE - Climate Disruption in Overdrive: Submerged Cities and Melting That "Feeds on Itself," click here for full article
Not to be out done, as the following article title states:
10/26/16 CRITICAL ARTICLE - July 2016 Was The Hottest Month Ever Recorded: The hottest month since at least 1880 continues a streak of record-smashing
"If July felt horrendously hot, that’s because it was.
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ― two leading global authorities on climate ― both say July 2016 was not only the hottest July on record, but the most sizzling month in the history of record-keeping.
NOAA on Wednesday said July’s global average temperature was 62.01 degrees, 1.57 degrees above the 20th-century average. NASA, which uses a slightly different methodology, said Monday the average global temperature in July was 1.51 degrees above average. Both agencies pegged July as the hottest month since monitoring began in 1880."
Be sure to check out the map titled "Selected Significant Climate Anomolies and Events: July 2016." This is a must see article.
Along with the above quotes on the horrifying rate of change, in the rate of change, of global mean temperatures, the prior article notes:
"As if that isn't enough, a study recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience revealed that carbon emissions are now the highest they have been since the age of dinosaurs, 66 million years ago. According to the study, the current pace of emissions is even beyond the highest-known natural surge of carbon that exists in fossil records, an event that occurred 56 million years ago that was believed by many to be caused by the release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases from the seabed."
"That ancient release, which drove temperatures up 5 degrees Celsius, is now surpassed by our current surge of carbon release. "Given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years," the scientists of the new study wrote."
Here is the NASA table showing the degree in Celsius above the 1951-1980 baseline period. Note how much lower the degree above baseline is using the 1951-1980 date, than the 1.57 degrees above the preindustrial period. It shows a 1.34 degrees Celsius above baseline for February 2016, versus the 1.57 noted in the article, which is due to changing the baseline dates. The baseline dates change from the one showing 1951-1980 in the NASA table of temperature changes, which shows the least change, as it already is during the latter stages of the industrial era. The second is the article on the change of global mean temperatures from the twenteith century average, a greater change, but still mostly since the rise in the use of fossil fuels. The degree above 20th century average baseline is 1.57 again for July 2016, not the preindustrial average, as is scientifically accurate. Notice how they are changing the "baseline" dates to reduce the extreme jump in the global mean temperatures. I had no idea we could see such a big jump. The question is when will the big jump stay there? Don't be fooled by the changing of the "baseline dates," such as the following table from NASA does, and even the NASA average for July 2016, using the 20th century average. The correct baseline date is the pre-industrial age average, which establishes the global mean temperature, before the use of fossil fuels.
CRITICAL TABLE: GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius base period: 1951-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
OMG this is the rise in the "rate of change, of the rate of change," or second derivative in the rise of mean global temperatures, that I have been screaming that would happen at some time in the not too distant future, and that would result in the consequential rapid melting of Greenland and most of Antarctica. But I must admit, I did not even think it could be this rapid and extreme. Worse yet, carbon emissions are now the highest since the dinosaur age, 66 million years ago. THe kicker, the surge of carbon exceeds the highest known in the fossil records, 56 million years ago, which resulted in 5 degrees Celsius rise. Need I say more, maybe Guy may be correct, it may be THE END sooner than I am expecting! More on the troposphere after I finish the review of this very important video.
Along with the above quotes on the horrifying rate of change, in the rate of change, of global mean temperatures, the article notes:
"As if that isn't enough, a study recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience revealed that carbon emissions are now the highest they have been since the age of dinosaurs, 66 million years ago. According to the study, the current pace of emissions is even beyond the highest-known natural surge of carbon that exists in fossil records, an event that occurred 56 million years ago that was believed by many to be caused by the release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases from the seabed."
"That ancient release, which drove temperatures up 5 degrees Celsius, is now surpassed by our current surge of carbon release. "Given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years," the scientists of the new study wrote."
10/26/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL: Carbon emissions highest in 66 million years, since dinosaur age, (10/21/16 Reuters.com), click here for full article
At this rate, I may have to ask for the "Max Dog Brewery Easy Ride Home Kit" for a holiday gift soon. I was thinking I would not even need it during my lifetime, or it might be decades from now, when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff." Now, "It Is THE END" might be much sooner than I had expected. Stay tuned for my analysis of Guy's presentation on the troposphere and why it is his number one risk factor. Just in case things worsen at anywhere close to the second derivative rise that occurred in temperatures from October 2015 to February 2016, I may need that Max Dog Brewery Easy Ride Home Kit sooner than I had ever imagined! God have mercy on our souls!
10/18/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL - "Arctic Methane Emissions Greater than previous estimates" (June 1, 2016), documents that half of the methane emmissions from the Arctic tundra occur during the zero curtin, from September to December. Current climate models assume that all of the methane emissions occur during the summer months. Also, they documented that most of the methane emmissions were higher in the drier, upland area, which was not thought to contribute to methane emissions.
As the article notes: Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is about 25 times more powerful per molecule than carbon dioxide over a century, but more than 84 times over 20 years. When temperatures are around 0°C (called “the zero curtain”) the top and bottom of the active layer begin to freeze, but the middle remains insulated. Micro-organisms in this unfrozen layer continue to break down organic matter and emit methane many months into the Arctic winter. “This is extremely relevant for the Arctic ecosystem, as the zero curtain period continues from September until the end of December, lasting as long as or longer than the entire summer season,” said Donatella Zona, the study’s lead author. “These results are the opposite of what modellers have been assuming, which is that the majority of the methane emissions occur during the warm summer months while the cold-season methane contribution is nearly zero.”
10/18/16 - CRITICAL NEW VIDEO - Why "It Is THE END" - Abrupt Climate Change - The Hard Truth
(Uploaded 10/9/16)This is a great summary of many of the lead scientist that see near-term extinction as likely, Guy McPherson, Paul Beckwith, David Wasdell, etc.. Scientists Guy McPherson provides his summary of why "It Is THE END" at the end of this video, along with his list of people forecasting near-term human extinction, a list I obviously belong to. He remains more optimistic than I do, with his belief that we should all be dead within a short period of time. I am less optimistic, and believe it may take 50-150 years of "hell on earth" before all of our species is extinct. He also provides his list on the 58 feedback loops, as of Nov 2015, reinforcing climate change, and notes that NASA's CARVE project detected 150 kilometer methane plumes in the Arctic back in July 2013, which recent articles have documented are greater than estimated.
OMG, when I first put this video on my site last week, I was cleaning the kitchen, and missed the most important point of the video. Just now I was watching it closely from the beginning to take notes, especially related to what Guy was saying about the Troposphere. Then the next item, which I must have missed the first time, came across, and it was OMG are you serious!
"NASA recently released data confirming the February was the warmest month ever measured globally, at 1.57 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline average. The new record easily smashed the old global temperature average, which was set one month before, in January."
"This means that while it took from the advent of the industrial age until October 2015 to warm the planet 1 degree Celsius, humans have managed to warm the planet another .57 degree Celsius in just the next four months since then."
This is the link to the article which documents this massive rise in the global mean temperature in February 2016, on the truth-out.org site.
10/23/16 CRITICAL ARTICLE - Climate Disruption in Overdrive: Submerged Cities and Melting That "Feeds on Itself," click here for full article
Not to be out done, as the following article title states:
10/26/16 CRITICAL ARTICLE - July 2016 Was The Hottest Month Ever Recorded: The hottest month since at least 1880 continues a streak of record-smashing
"If July felt horrendously hot, that’s because it was.
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ― two leading global authorities on climate ― both say July 2016 was not only the hottest July on record, but the most sizzling month in the history of record-keeping.
NOAA on Wednesday said July’s global average temperature was 62.01 degrees, 1.57 degrees above the 20th-century average. NASA, which uses a slightly different methodology, said Monday the average global temperature in July was 1.51 degrees above average. Both agencies pegged July as the hottest month since monitoring began in 1880."
Be sure to check out the map titled "Selected Significant Climate Anomolies and Events: July 2016." This is a must see article.
Along with the above quotes on the horrifying rate of change, in the rate of change, of global mean temperatures, the prior article notes:
"As if that isn't enough, a study recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience revealed that carbon emissions are now the highest they have been since the age of dinosaurs, 66 million years ago. According to the study, the current pace of emissions is even beyond the highest-known natural surge of carbon that exists in fossil records, an event that occurred 56 million years ago that was believed by many to be caused by the release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases from the seabed."
"That ancient release, which drove temperatures up 5 degrees Celsius, is now surpassed by our current surge of carbon release. "Given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years," the scientists of the new study wrote."
Here is the NASA table showing the degree in Celsius above the 1951-1980 baseline period. Note how much lower the degree above baseline is using the 1951-1980 date, than the 1.57 degrees above the preindustrial period. It shows a 1.34 degrees Celsius above baseline for February 2016, versus the 1.57 noted in the article, which is due to changing the baseline dates. The baseline dates change from the one showing 1951-1980 in the NASA table of temperature changes, which shows the least change, as it already is during the latter stages of the industrial era. The second is the article on the change of global mean temperatures from the twenteith century average, a greater change, but still mostly since the rise in the use of fossil fuels. The degree above 20th century average baseline is 1.57 again for July 2016, not the preindustrial average, as is scientifically accurate. Notice how they are changing the "baseline" dates to reduce the extreme jump in the global mean temperatures. I had no idea we could see such a big jump. The question is when will the big jump stay there? Don't be fooled by the changing of the "baseline dates," such as the following table from NASA does, and even the NASA average for July 2016, using the 20th century average. The correct baseline date is the pre-industrial age average, which establishes the global mean temperature, before the use of fossil fuels.
CRITICAL TABLE: GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius base period: 1951-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
OMG this is the rise in the "rate of change, of the rate of change," or second derivative in the rise of mean global temperatures, that I have been screaming that would happen at some time in the not too distant future, and that would result in the consequential rapid melting of Greenland and most of Antarctica. But I must admit, I did not even think it could be this rapid and extreme. Worse yet, carbon emissions are now the highest since the dinosaur age, 66 million years ago. THe kicker, the surge of carbon exceeds the highest known in the fossil records, 56 million years ago, which resulted in 5 degrees Celsius rise. Need I say more, maybe Guy may be correct, it may be THE END sooner than I am expecting! More on the troposphere after I finish the review of this very important video.
Along with the above quotes on the horrifying rate of change, in the rate of change, of global mean temperatures, the article notes:
"As if that isn't enough, a study recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience revealed that carbon emissions are now the highest they have been since the age of dinosaurs, 66 million years ago. According to the study, the current pace of emissions is even beyond the highest-known natural surge of carbon that exists in fossil records, an event that occurred 56 million years ago that was believed by many to be caused by the release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases from the seabed."
"That ancient release, which drove temperatures up 5 degrees Celsius, is now surpassed by our current surge of carbon release. "Given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years," the scientists of the new study wrote."
10/26/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL: Carbon emissions highest in 66 million years, since dinosaur age, (10/21/16 Reuters.com), click here for full article
At this rate, I may have to ask for the "Max Dog Brewery Easy Ride Home Kit" for a holiday gift soon. I was thinking I would not even need it during my lifetime, or it might be decades from now, when the world falls off "Hubbert's Cliff." Now, "It Is THE END" might be much sooner than I had expected. Stay tuned for my analysis of Guy's presentation on the troposphere and why it is his number one risk factor. Just in case things worsen at anywhere close to the second derivative rise that occurred in temperatures from October 2015 to February 2016, I may need that Max Dog Brewery Easy Ride Home Kit sooner than I had ever imagined! God have mercy on our souls!
10/18/16 CRITICAL ARTICAL - "Arctic Methane Emissions Greater than previous estimates" (June 1, 2016), documents that half of the methane emmissions from the Arctic tundra occur during the zero curtin, from September to December. Current climate models assume that all of the methane emissions occur during the summer months. Also, they documented that most of the methane emmissions were higher in the drier, upland area, which was not thought to contribute to methane emissions.
As the article notes: Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is about 25 times more powerful per molecule than carbon dioxide over a century, but more than 84 times over 20 years. When temperatures are around 0°C (called “the zero curtain”) the top and bottom of the active layer begin to freeze, but the middle remains insulated. Micro-organisms in this unfrozen layer continue to break down organic matter and emit methane many months into the Arctic winter. “This is extremely relevant for the Arctic ecosystem, as the zero curtain period continues from September until the end of December, lasting as long as or longer than the entire summer season,” said Donatella Zona, the study’s lead author. “These results are the opposite of what modellers have been assuming, which is that the majority of the methane emissions occur during the warm summer months while the cold-season methane contribution is nearly zero.”